With La Niña weakening, higher pressure southeast of New Zealand will bring mostly north-easterly winds, with occasional bouts of south-westerlies, according to the latest NIWA Seasonal Climate Outlook for April to June 2025.

The outlook notes that areas with low soil moisture and river flows need consistent rainfall to reverse the effects of dryness and drought, with below-normal river flows most likely in the north and west of the North Island.

Seasonal rainfall is likely to be near normal in most regions, with possible above-normal rainfall in the north and east of both islands.There is a normal to elevated risk of an ex-tropical cyclone passing within 550 km of New Zealand in April, bringing heavy rain.

Meanwhile, air temperatures over the next three months are expected to be near average or above average for the west of the North and South Islands, and above average for all other regions of the country.

The seas around New Zealand remain warmer than average for South Island waters, with marine heatwave conditions persisting.

The full NIWA Seasonal Climate Outlook is available (attached) and online, and includes regional outlooks.

Seasonal Climate Outlook April - June 2025 | NIWA

Livestream with Chris Brandolino available from at Seasonal Climate Outlook - April to June

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