Transfund's Inaugural 10 Year Financial Forecast

Media Release 30 June 2003

Transfund releases its inaugural 10 year financial forecast

Transfund New Zealand today released its inaugural 10 year financial forecast which sets out the land transport allocations that are achievable over the next 10 years given current government policy and revenue.

This 'work in progress' takes a balanced approach across different transport modes and is likely to change as economic conditions, government priorities and the state of individual projects change. Compared with the last ten years, the forecast shows a significant increase in funding in real terms with a special emphasis on improving severe urban congestion, public safety, public transport and support for economic development.

Transfund chairperson David Stubbs says the release of this forecast reflects a further stage in the evolution of transport planning in New Zealand.

"The government's Moving Forward policy, released in February 2002, was the catalyst for broadening the focus of land transport funding from the provision of roading as the predominant concern to a balanced consideration of all modes of land transport.

"This momentum has been continued by publishing the New Zealand Transport Strategy (NZTS) and introduction of the Land Transport Management Bill. We have responded by preparing this forecast for the next ten years," he says.

Publication of the forecast enables a better understanding of the demand pressures on expenditure and helps illustrate the trade-offs required with limited funding. While preparation of the forecast has revealed how much Transfund and its sector partners know about New Zealand's transport needs, it has also identified where more information is needed.

"The dimensions of road maintenance are well understood. We have a good understanding of road construction, especially in the case of State highways, where the allocations are underpinned by Transit New Zealand's 10 Year State Highway Plan.

"However, in other areas, such as passenger transport, alternatives to roading, and walking and cycling, funding policies are evolving and we do not have as clear a view of the future. For these outputs, the allocations are more provisional."

Mr Stubbs says it is important to note that the forecast will change. Inclusion of a project in Transit's plan and, as a result, the 10 year forecast does not guarantee the project will be funded or will be funded in the time period indicated. While the forecast shows a deficit in later years, this in reality will not happen. The over allocation in the forecast acknowledges that large complex urban projects in particular are subject to delay.

It is also important to note that the forecast is a "work in progress" and Transfund expects to receive feedback on its published document.

"We certainly anticipate that this forecast will encourage debate. Debate which we believe will assist us to make informed decisions on the future allocation of central government funding and delivery of government's transport objectives," he says.

ENDS

The 10 year financial forecast is available as a pdf file on http://www.transfund.govt.nz/nat.html

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