Manufacturing Slowing quickly...

3 October 2005

Manufacturing Slowing quickly...

The latest Canterbury Manufacturers’ Association Survey of Manufacturers completed during September 2005, shows total sales in August 2005 were down 7.3%, (export sales down 5% and domestic sales down about 10%) on August 2004.

The Canterbury Manufacturers’ Association survey sample this month reported around NZ$505m in annualised sales, with an export content of 55%.

“Total sales were down with exports now mirroring the recent falls from domestic sales. With sales and profit down, add in a bit of election uncertainty, predict a blow out in the current account balance and confidence drops to the lowest level for over three years” says John Walley, Chief Executive of the Canterbury Manufacturers’ Association. “Even the recent rises in the US and Australian dollar were insufficient to put a smile on the face of most respondents.”

“Net confidence at -36 was the lowest in a pretty miserable year so far.”

“As always the comments vary; building still appears to be hanging in there; in the furniture industry it's hard to find a any silver lining, and general engineering is slowing – all indicating the broader economy is slowing.”

“Everyone should be feeling the discomfort in out-trade balances at 8.5% of GDP; with worse in prospect - drowning in debt does not overstate the situation.”

“The headline for the month was the decision by ECAN to reject the Gelita consent application for a new boiler – luddites in full cry – questioning the value the community places on local industry (ask those who work there) and jeopardising significant ongoing investment in our city.”

The current performance index (a combination of profitability and cash flow) stands at 93 down from 95 last month, the change index (capacity utilisation, staff levels, orders, and inventories) sits at 101 down from 103 last month, the forecast index (investment, sales, profitability and staff) is at 96 down from 98 last month. Overall things are slowing fast and they will get worse.

“We have a Government that won the vote auction (sorry - election). We repeat that our members want to see a set of coherent tax incentives targeted to encourage and support productive investment, growth and a reduction in the current account deficit.”

“The debt funded ‘must have it now’ consumer spending boom will come to an end, one way or another, one thing is for sure without export growth that end will hurt.”

Constraints focused on staff ~7% and markets ~86% and capacity ~7%. Staff numbers reported a fall in the month of around 1.5%.
Net sentiment reported in this survey stood at –36. The year on year change stood at –56.

CANTERBURY MANUFACTURERS' ASSOCIATION
Survey of Business Conditions – August 2004 compared with August 2005

SAMPLE SIZE: The Survey respondents represent elaborate transformed manufacturers with annual sales of approximately $505 million.

CHANGE OVER 12 MONTH PERIOD
(The table below represents the above returns expressed as percentages)
August July
TOTAL TURNOVER: Export /Domestic ratio 55/45 53/47
% Change in Total Turnover DECREASED -7.3 0.15

DOMESTIC TURNOVER: % of respondents reporting a rise 30 36
% of respondents reporting a fall 54 36
% of respondents reporting no change 15 29
% Change in Ave Domestic Turnover DECREASED -10 -4.02

EXPORT TURNOVER: % of exporters reporting a rise 36 40
% of exporters reporting a fall 63 60
% of exporters reporting no change 0 0
% Change in Average Export Turnover DECREASED -4.99 4.17

STAFF NUMBERS: % of respondents reporting a rise 61 64
% of respondents reporting a fall 23 28
% of respondents reporting no change 15 7.1
% Change in Average Staff Numbers DECREASED -1.53 1.95

CHANGE OVER 12 MONTH PERIOD
(The table below represents the above returns expressed as percentages. Last month in brackets.)

Large Fall
(Over 15%) Modest Fall
(2.5%-15%) No Change
(Within 2.5%) Modest Rise
(2.5%-15%) Large Rise
(Over 15%)
Aug July Aug July Aug July Aug July Aug July
Profitability (YoY) 36 25 14 25 21 31 21 6 7 13
Cashflow (YoY) 14 6 36 25 36 50 14 19 0 0
Exchange Rate (YoY) 14 7 7 20 64 60 7 7 7 7
Investment Forecast 21 19 21 6 29 44 29 31 0 0
Sales Forecast 7 13 36 25 21 25 36 38 0 0
Profit Forecast 21 25 29 19 21 13 21 44 7 0
Staffing Forecast 7 6 21 19 64 50 7 25 0 0
Confidence Very
Negative Negative Neutral Positive Very
Positive
7 13 43 19 36 50 14 19 0 0
Constraint Production Skilled Staff Capital Market
7 13 7 13 0 0 86 75

Net Confidence Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
2003 +21 -6 +12 -11 -5 +12 -6 0 +11 +40 +29 +33
2004 +5 +19 +41 +41 +36 +50 +12 +20 +7 0 -7 +5
2005 +13 -13 -6 -25 -33 -13 -13 -36

Index (base =100) Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Performance 105 100 99 95 95 97 95 93
Forecast 103 98 104 102 99 100 98 96
Change 104 99 101 103 100 99 103 101
ENDS

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