Manufacturing activity picks up

Media release

12 April 2006

Manufacturing activity picks up

Manufacturing activity expanded for two consecutive months for the first time since the middle of 2005, according to the Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI).

March’s seasonally adjusted PMI, at 53.5 was the highest result since February 2005, and 2.3 points higher than the 51.2 recorded for February 2006.

A PMI reading above 50.0 indicates that manufacturing is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining.

PMI values for March in 2003, 2004 and 2005 were 52.8, 59.0 and 51.6 respectively.

Expansion in manufacturing during March was mainly due to strong activity in the South Island, led by the Otago/Southland region (55.8). All other regions displayed various levels of expansion, with the Central region (50.8) being close to no change.

Encouragingly, activity in production (54.5) recorded its highest value since February 2005, while new orders (54.5) and deliveries (54.3) were at the same level. Activity in employment (50.0) recorded no change after nine of the previous ten months in decline, while finished stocks (49.0) was the only main index to show any level of decline.

The March result builds on slight improvements in the manufacturing sector for February, and was relatively in line with previous March results. Comments from manufacturers were almost equally split between positive and negative factors that are influencing main activity for their business. Of those that mentioned the value of the NZ$, around 60% saw the dollar’s recent decline as a positive influence, while a small fraction (around 9%) saw it as a negative influence given the increased cost of imports. Around 33% were still negatively influenced by the NZ$ as its value was still considered too high in the competitive export market.

ENDS

See... ANZ Business NZ PMI http://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/0604/PMIMarch06.pdf

Seasonally Adjusted Time Series - Business NZ PMI

/ PMI_SA / PRODUCTION_SA / EMPLOYMENT_SA / NEW_ORDERS_SA / FINISHED_STOCKS_SA / DELIVERIES_SA
Aug-02 57.1 58.8 54.2 60.5 52.2 56.7
Sep-02 57.2 57.9 51.8 60.8 53.0 58.7
Oct-02 59.1 61.2 54.1 63.1 53.2 58.0
Nov-02 56.8 59.7 52.5 60.0 51.8 57.0
Dec-02 56.6 59.4 51.9 60.8 52.3 55.6
Jan-03 55.9 59.0 52.4 55.6 53.2 59.9
Feb-03 54.2 55.2 55.9 53.2 54.1 52.2
Mar-03 52.8 52.4 50.9 53.3 53.1 51.4
Apr-03 53.8 54.2 50.5 55.5 53.8 53.1
May-03 53.5 53.5 51.3 54.5 53.8 52.4
Jun-03 52.0 50.9 50.2 53.3 51.7 52.9
Jul-03 53.6 52.5 51.6 54.9 53.5 54.4
Aug-03 50.8 48.1 51.3 55.4 50.5 47.9
Sep-03 56.3 57.1 52.6 58.5 54.5 56.5
Oct-03 62.2 67.7 52.8 68.1 54.5 58.5
Nov-03 56.2 56.8 55.9 59.7 46.9 57.3
Dec-03 54.2 55.3 50.3 56.4 51.5 57.3
Jan-04 55.7 57.4 50.4 59.0 52.2 57.5
Feb-04 56.4 56.9 49.8 61.0 52.8 57.5
Mar-04 59.0 61.2 50.8 63.1 52.3 59.6
Apr-04 59.3 60.9 51.6 64.4 52.2 60.2
May-04 58.0 59.3 52.9 62.4 51.9 59.2
Jun-04 61.0 63.1 53.6 67.3 52.9 59.1
Jul-04 59.5 62.6 52.2 64.2 54.4 56.8
Aug-04 57.7 59.0 50.7 62.9 55.2 58.3
Sep-04 53.5 53.2 52.1 55.3 53.1 52.9
Oct-04 54.3 55.7 50.3 57.7 52.3 51.7
Nov-04 57.7 59.4 52.9 60.4 55.1 60.3
Dec-04 58.3 62.6 55.4 60.7 54.2 55.5
Jan-05 56.9 55.8 55.5 61.1 53.5 56.1
Feb-05 55.6 56.6 52.7 58.8 48.7 55.6
Mar-05 51.6 53.1 48.2 50.7 51.6 52.3
Apr-05 52.4 52.3 52.1 52.7 51.9 51.6
May-05 53.2 53.4 49.7 54.9 52.0 52.6
Jun-05 51.0 51.0 49.5 50.5 52.9 51.6
Jul-05 50.2 48.9 48.9 51.2 48.8 51.7
Aug-05 52.0 53.0 51.0 52.7 51.2 53.0
Sep-05 49.0 48.0 47.9 50.2 49.3 49.5
Oct-05 47.2 45.6 46.1 48.1 49.9 47.0
Nov-05 44.1 43.8 46.0 43.0 49.5 43.4
Dec-05 47.8 47.5 47.3 47.2 54.1 48.3
Jan-06 48.4 48.5 46.6 50.6 48.0 48.4
Feb-06 51.2 52.3 48.6 53.3 47.2 51.6
Mar-06 53.5 54.5 50.0 54.5 49.0 54.3

Unadjusted Time Series - Business NZ PMI

/ PMI / Production / Employment / New_Orders / Finished_Stocks / Deliveries / Northern / Central / Canterbury / Otago
Aug-02 58.2 59.6 53.7 61.2 53.3 59.1 57.7 56.6 62.0 58.9
Sep-02 60.5 63.8 52.7 64.1 56.0 60.9 58.1 60.3 63.6 67.0
Oct-02 61.5 64.6 55.6 65.5 54.8 60.8 59.6 62.3 65.3 62.5
Nov-02 65.0 69.8 57.8 69.4 56.0 63.6 65.4 67.1 58.8 65.2
Dec-02 56.4 58.1 50.8 61.7 49.0 55.6 54.2 54.7 58.8 71.5
Jan-03 51.6 53.0 49.3 50.7 51.2 54.7 45.1 58.8 48.5 59.9
Feb-03 53.0 55.1 53.8 51.3 54.0 51.3 51.2 54.2 50.5 60.4
Mar-03 52.7 52.4 51.7 54.5 51.7 51.4 48.1 55.2 63.1 48.0
Apr-03 49.3 48.0 49.1 50.7 50.0 48.7 48.7 49.7 53.5 43.9
May-03 49.6 49.8 48.8 50.3 50.3 49.0 47.9 50.1 53.4 51.8
Jun-03 53.2 51.4 52.6 53.7 54.6 55.2 50.2 52.3 56.4 61.7
Jul-03 51.6 49.2 51.5 52.3 54.9 52.1 51.5 51.5 49.5 55.0
Aug-03 51.9 48.9 50.8 56.1 51.6 50.3 52.2 48.6 60.2 53.4
Sep-03 59.6 63.0 53.5 61.8 57.5 58.7 62.1 57.0 65.2 52.1
Oct-03 64.6 71.1 54.3 70.5 56.1 61.3 64.2 64.2 75.0 59.7
Nov-03 64.4 66.9 61.2 69.1 51.1 63.9 61.3 63.2 69.1 73.4
Dec-03 54.0 54.0 49.2 57.3 48.2 57.3 51.1 48.7 65.3 54.5
Jan-04 51.4 51.4 47.3 54.1 50.2 52.3 50.0 51.0 54.9 48.7
Feb-04 55.2 56.8 47.7 59.1 52.7 56.6 54.1 58.1 57.1 47.1
Mar-04 58.9 61.2 51.6 64.3 50.9 59.6 58.3 60.0 64.6 49.1
Apr-04 54.8 54.7 50.2 59.6 48.4 55.8 53.7 54.4 59.8 49.6
May-04 54.1 55.6 50.4 58.2 48.4 55.8 55.7 52.0 57.3 51.3
Jun-04 62.2 63.6 56.0 67.7 55.8 61.4 63.6 60.8 62.4 56.1
Jul-04 57.5 59.3 52.1 61.6 55.8 54.5 60.6 55.2 60.9 45.8
Aug-04 58.8 59.8 50.2 63.6 56.3 60.7 61.1 55.9 59.6 57.5
Sep-04 56.8 59.1 53.0 58.6 56.1 55.1 58.5 54.3 54.9 62.3
Oct-04 56.7 59.1 51.8 60.1 53.9 54.5 56.8 57.7 56.0 54.8
Nov-04 65.9 69.5 58.2 69.8 59.3 66.9 68.0 62.2 61.0 67.9
Dec-04 58.1 61.3 54.3 61.6 50.9 55.5 58.8 56.8 56.5 58.2
Jan-05 52.6 49.8 52.4 56.2 51.5 50.9 53.8 51.2 49.4 54.9
Feb-05 54.4 56.5 50.6 56.9 48.6 54.7 53.8 51.0 63.1 51.0
Mar-05 51.5 53.1 49.0 51.9 50.2 52.3 52.6 47.8 50.6 54.3
Apr-05 47.9 46.1 50.7 47.9 48.1 47.2 46.6 45.4 53.2 51.3
May-05 49.3 49.7 47.2 50.7 48.5 49.2 49.4 50.1 48.9 46.8
Jun-05 52.2 51.5 51.9 50.9 55.8 53.9 50.5 53.0 54.4 54.7
Jul-05 48.2 45.6 48.8 48.6 50.2 49.4 44.8 50.6 54.6 50.7
Aug-05 53.1 53.8 50.5 53.4 52.3 55.4 54.0 51.3 47.6 60.9
Sep-05 52.3 53.9 48.8 53.5 52.3 51.7 52.1 53.1 46.7 59.8
Oct-05 49.6 49.0 47.6 50.5 51.5 49.8 48.4 48.8 52.7 54.9
Nov-05 52.3 53.9 51.3 52.4 53.7 50.0 50.7 57.7 54.3 46.5
Dec-05 47.6 46.2 46.2 48.1 50.8 48.3 47.3 45.1 54.6 44.5
Jan-06 44.1 42.5 43.5 45.7 45.9 43.3 42.3 44.8 49.4 42.8
Feb-06 50.1 52.1 46.4 51.4 47.1 50.7 46.8 49.1 59.4 48.9
Mar-06 53.4 54.5 50.8 55.7 47.6 54.3 53.8 50.8 54.2 55.8

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