11-April-2009 - China Economic Scan

11-April-2009 | China Economic Scan

China Economic Scan - Your daily update on the Chinese economy.

In this edition: China's exports fall by a smaller amount, consumer confidence increases slightly, SPD Bank to raise 30 billion yuan, Chinese renewable energy plan, Chinese stocks close up.
Top 5 headlines
China’s Exports Fall for Fifth Month on Global Slump
• Exports fell for the 5th month in a row, down 17.1% year on year to $90.29 billion; imports dropped 25.1%, leaving a trade surplus of $18.56 billion.
• However it was somewhat positive; the decline was less than February's 25.7% drop, and below consensus forecasts of a 20% decline. The trade surplus was also greater than Feb's $484 billion.
• The OECD is forecasting a 13% drop in global trade this year, the NDRC in China is forecasting a potential decline of 10% this year for China (versus a 17% gain in 2008, and the first drop in full year exports since 1990).
Consumer confidence in China perks up
• The BCCI, an index launched by China UnionPay and Xinhua which tracks changes in the consumption behaviour of Chinese bankcard holders, increased to 86.95 in the first quarter of 2009 versus 86.88 in Q4 08.
• "The year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increase of BCCI indicates that the global financial crisis is not impacting Chinese consumers in a big way," said Xu Luode, president, China UnionPay; "We expect the index to increase further in the second quarter."
• According to the National Bureau of Statistics, retail sales totaled 2 trillion yuan in the first two months of 2009, up 15.2% year on year.
Pudong Bank to Sell 30 Billion Yuan of Shares, Debt
• Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co. plans to raise as much as 15 billion yuan from a private placement (about 20% of existing shares) to 10 investors including current major shareholders. SPDB will also raise as much as 15 billion yuan in subordinate debt.
• The equity component of the planned capital raising will be about 800 million shares at 18.7 yuan per share, which would raise its capital adequacy ratio by about 1.5 percentage points.
• SPDB announced its net income rose to 12.5 billion yuan in 2008 from 5.5 billion. Shares in the bank rose 0.9% to 22.22 yuan. Citi owns 3.78% of the bank.
Baoding, Goldwind Rise on China Renewable Energy Plan
• China aims to boost the use of renewable energy to 10% of total energy consumption by 2010 (from 7.5% in 2005). China gets 80% of its electricity from burning coal.
• China is said to be drafting a stimulus plan for the renewable energy industry; “Experts are consulting opinions from companies now,” said a project manager from the Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association.
• Renewables stocks: Tianwei Baobian, solar cell maker, +4.6% (38.16 yuan); Xinjiang Goldwind, wind turbine maker, +9.6% (42.95 yuan); Topraysolar Co, solar product maker, +8.6% (32.88 yuan).
China stocks up 2.7 pct, optimism on economy rises
• The Shanghai Composite closed up 2.7% (2,444.23), and the Shenzhen Component closed up 3.49% (9,030.31). Gaining Shanghai A-shares outnumbered losers 899 to 18, turnover increased to 155.1 billion yuan from 106.3 billion the previous day.
• Chinese exports fell 17.1% in March, a smaller drop than the previous month; 'The March data suggests things have stopped falling but there was no rebound, so the officials might introduce more policies to support a recovery,' said Stockfly Securities analyst Chen Shaodan.
• Stocks: Jiangxi Copper +10% (2572 yuan), China Shenhua Energy +4.59% (22.82), Ping An Insurance +3.04% (42.38), China Life Insurance +3.43% (24.40 yuan), China Pacific Insurance +3.89% (18.17 yuan), Bank of Communications +4.41% (6.87 yuan), Bank of Beijing +2.32% (12.36 yuan), Air China +7.73% (6.69 yuan).

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