Consumer Confidence Drops to Record Lows for NZers

Consumer Confidence Drops to Record Lows for New Zealanders: MasterCard Survey

Consumer Confidence Declines Across Asia/Pacific Markets

New Zealand, 10 June 2009 – Consumer confidence in New Zealand continues to decline, dropping over 12 points from six months ago (33.7 to 21.5), according to the latest MasterCard Worldwide Index of Consumer Confidence.

This score is also a drop from a year ago (37.1) and is the lowest Index score recorded for New Zealand since the inception of the survey in 1993. It is also the lowest score (equal with Japan) recorded for the 14 markets surveyed in Asia/Pacific.

Now in its 17th year, the MasterCard Worldwide Index of Consumer Confidence is the region’s most comprehensive and longest running consumer confidence survey. Released twice a year, the Index is based on a survey which measures consumer confidence on prevailing expectations in the market for the next six months. It is calculated with zero as the most pessimistic, 100 as most optimistic and 50 as neutral.

The latest survey was conducted from 23 March to 18 April 2009 and involved 9,211 consumers from 21 markets[1]. Data collection was via personal, telephone and Computer Aided Telephone interviews, with the questionnaire translated to the local language wherever appropriate and necessary. The Index and its accompanying reports do not represent MasterCard financial performance.

“New Zealanders continue to feel negative about the employment situation here, with the score for employment tumbling from 29.7 six months ago to 6.8, as well as New Zealander’s economic outlook, which fell from 38.7 six months ago to 19.7,” says Stuart McKinlay, New Zealand country manager, MasterCard Worldwide.

“Confidence in the stock market has also dipped from 36.7 to 25.0 and Kiwis’ overall view of our quality of life has dropped from 27.8 to 15.9. The only bright spot seems to be that New Zealand consumers have become slightly more optimistic in terms of their outlook on regular income, up to 40.0 from 35.3, which is surprising considering our view of the local employment situation.”

Ten Asia/Pacific markets were pessimistic about the second half of 2009, with Singapore (31.2 vs 62.3 six months ago), Vietnam (60.9 vs 88.1), Australia (24.1 vs 49.0) and Hong Kong (24.7 vs 41.8) recording the biggest decline in confidence scores. Only three out of the 14 Asia/Pacific markets surveyed – China, India and Vietnam – were optimistic about the second half of 2009. India (68.0) had the highest score among the Asia/Pacific markets, with Indian consumers optimistic about Regular Income (70.0) and Quality of Life (74.5). Indonesian consumers have turned from pessimism to being neutral in their outlook (49.2 vs. 38.5 six months ago).

Dr. Yuwa Hedrick-Wong, economic advisor to MasterCard Worldwide in Asia/Pacific said, “The impact of the global crisis on Asia has been massive, with exports declining steeply in most Asian markets, in some cases up to 40% between the summer of 2008 and March 2009. Currently market conditions continue to be volatile; and a high level of uncertainty persists as to what the future may hold. In Asia/Pacific, there is a sharp divide between markets with consumers sinking into deeper pessimism; and markets where consumer optimism has stood up well in spite of the general deterioration of economic conditions globally and at home.

“India in particular stands out, where consumer confidence actually increased compared to six months ago. Chinese consumers remain confident about their future; although the level of confidence has dropped compared with last year. Consumer outlook in Vietnam also remains optimistic, albeit at a lower level as well. It is also worth pointing out that consumer sentiments in Indonesia have turned from negative to neutral for the first time since 2007. These are outstanding results given the prevailing economic environment.

“In sharp contrast, consumer outlook in other Asian markets continues to be pessimistic. This sharp divide reflects, to a large extent, the difference in consumers’ perception of the strength of their domestic economy, and how well it could weather the global storm. So it is not surprising that economic growth is expected to be positive in real terms in China, India, Vietnam and Indonesia in 2009. Indeed, it is due to these markets that Asia (excluding Japan) is projected to grow by over 5% this year, compared with more than a 3% contraction in OECD countries. Asia thus leads all other regions in the world in growth this year. Similarly, the Middle East is expected to have positive economic growth this year, although at a level below that of Asia. Hence, consumer confidence remains positive in the key markets in the Middle East, with the exceptions of Egypt and UAE.”

Other key findings from the survey for Asia/Pacific were:

• The average consumer confidence score of markets in the Asia/Pacific (38.7) has dipped from six months ago (47.4) and a year ago (56.0), though it is higher than the 1997-98 Asian economic crisis average of 32.3.
• Overall consumer outlook has fallen across the five indicators that make up the Index compared to six months ago: Employment (30.3 vs. 41.2 six months ago), Economy (38.7 vs. 42.1 six months ago), Quality of Life (39.2 vs. 44.0 six months ago), the Stock Market (41.1 vs. 45.5 six months ago) and Regular Income (44.2 vs. 64.3 six months ago).
• While China (60.8) and Vietnam (60.9) remain optimistic about the second half of 2009, they are less optimistic than they were six months ago (China at 76.6; Vietnam at 88.1).

MasterCard and its Suite of Research Properties

The long-standing MasterCard Worldwide Index of Consumer Confidence is the flagship program in MasterCard’s suite of research properties in Asia/Pacific. The other key MasterCard Worldwide Index research products include the MasterCard Worldwide Index of Consumer Purchasing Priorities, MasterCard Worldwide Index of Consumer Purchasing Resilience, the MasterCard Worldwide Index of Women’s Advancement, the MasterCard Worldwide Centers of Commerce and the MasterCard Worldwide Emerging Markets Index.

Besides the suite of Indexes put forth by MasterCard, MasterCard also develops Insights reports as part of its series of ongoing research and analysis of business dynamics, financial policies and regulatory activities in the Asia/Pacific region. Over 60 reports have been produced since 2004.

The suite of Indexes and reports do not represent MasterCard financial performance.

More information on MasterCard’s suite of research products can be found on www.masterintelligence.com

Click Here To Read The Full Report (pdf)

ENDS

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