September 24 issue of the BNZ Weekly Overview

Welcome to the September 24 2009 issue of the BNZ Weekly Overview.

The NZD traded briefly above 73 cents this week driven higher by the official ending of the country’s recession, better than expected current account data, and Fonterra’s bigger than expected payout revision. While the NZD seems to have got ahead of the fundamentals, we think it still remains unreasonable to expect a solid pullback unless there is a major deterioration in the world economic outlook. That has not been a likely outcome since March and remains a low probability direction.

The good economic data have also pushed wholesale interest rates up and as has been the case since March risks for housing fixed interest rates remain on the upside.

BNZ Weekly Overview (pdf)

ENDS

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