IG Markets - Australian Market Wrap August 13 2010

IG Markets - Australian Market Wrap

Across Asia, regional markets are all modestly higher, shaking off concerns over the outlook for the global economy. The Kospi is stronger by 1.4% and the best performer in the region while the Shanghai Composite, the Nikkei 225 and the Hang Seng are firmer by 0.7%, 0.4% and 0.1% respectively.

In Australia, the ASX 200 closed 1.3% to upside at 4459, having reversed earlier losses where the index traded as low as 4393. Gains for the day were paced by a dominant rebound by the materials sector as well as solid contributions from the energy, financial and industrial sectors.

As we suggested in our morning commentary, the prospects of the market today were probably going to rest with the performance of the materials sector. While US leads for the financial, industrials and energy sectors were weak, the US materials sector managed to post a gain of 0.5%. We also saw some stability in base metal prices overnight after nearly a week of continuous falls.

This enabled materials names to outperform today with the sector surging 2.2% higher to clearly finish the standout performer of the session. Heavyweights BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, which had both been heavily sold down in recent days, ended 1.9% and 2.3% firmer respectively while Fortescue Metals also rebounded by 2.8%.

Given the US$13/oz surge in the gold price overnight to US$1213, it was not surprising to see both Newcrest Mining and Lihir Gold firmer by more than 2.3%.

Also supporting the market today was a turnaround in the fortunes of the financial and energy sectors. Both reversed earlier losses to finish higher by 1% and 2.1% respectively.

All big four banks were firmer between 0.3% and 1.6% Elsewhere in the sector, Bendigo and Adelaide Bank and QBE Insurance were higher by 1% and 0.5% respectively.

Meanwhile, the major energy names shrugged off a further 2.2% fall in crude prices to be broadly higher. Santos, Oil Search, Woodside Petroleum and Caltex all saw gains between 1.2% and 2.5% while coal players Macarthur Coal and Whitehaven Coal were both higher by 2% and 1.3% respectively.

In other noteworthy news, Telstra continued to be on the nose after announcing its disappointing 2011 outlook yesterday. Numerous brokers were quick to downgrade the stock with shares a further 0.7% lower today after getting slammed by nearly 10% yesterday.

Also, Myer built on yesterday’s healthy 4.6% advance with the market continuing to warm to its FY EBIT upgrade which was announced yesterday on the back of a better-than-expected Q4 sales performance. Shares were up a further 1.9% today.

The Australian market has shown some decent resilience today but you have to wonder if that’s all it is. Holding firms against the onslaught is one thing, moving forward is another. With choppy economic data the hallmark of any economic recovery, let alone the emergence from the GFC , you’d have to think we’re in for a rocky ride on the economic rollercoaster for some time to come. Given nothing to date has been able to power us forward, what’s likely to change in the near to medium term? The lack of any obvious spark is clearly weighing on investors who clearly seem exhausted from swimming against the tide.

Maybe the answer lies in the market getting past its ludicrous obsession with concerns over Chinese growth. China is trying to slow its boat to let the rest of us catch up but be assured it has plenty of horsepower in reserve if it wants to speed ahead. No one seems to get this.

Cameron Peacock
Market Analyst
IG Markets

ENDS

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