Rabobank NZ & AUS Agribusiness Review February 2011

Extreme events have dominated the weather in Australia, especially flooding along the east coast and Tropical Cyclone Yasi in far north Queensland. La Niña conditions are set to prevail through into the autumn, with above-average chances of exceeding median rainfall in Western Australia particularly welcome. Extreme weather has also visited New Zealand, which after fearing a dry summer, has experienced wet conditions during January. The seasonal outlook is for warm and wet conditions.

• Political unrest in North Africa and a growing inflation challenge in emerging economies have been the main features of the macroeconomic news. In New Zealand, the outlook is for slow and uneven progress, with a recent increase in the unemployment rate symptomatic of the shaky economic conditions.

• Australia’s economy is expected to continue expanding at a robust pace over the coming year. Both the AUD and NZD have strengthened against the USD over the past two months, with recent risk aversion in the global economy not afflicting the strength in these currencies. The AUD is expected to trade around parity with the USD while the NZD is likely to settle in a range of USD0.74-0.78.

• Global dairy prices have continued to shift upwards, driven by strong demand and some supply limitations. Local prices in New Zealand and Australia have shifted upwards in response, although the elevated currency has tempered the gains.

• Beef prices remain at seasonally high levels in New Zealand and Australia. Prices in New Zealand have also followed the strong global prices. In Australia the favourable seasonal conditions that have promoted re-stocker demand have combined with a tightening of supply caused by the weather to push prices to high levels. Lamb prices are very strong in New Zealand and at record levels in Australia.

• Global grains markets have shifted upwards over the past two months, with tight stocks and negative supply sentiment driven by weather conditions, the consideration of US acreage allocations and geopolitical instability. While wet weather in Australia did cause some crop losses, the main impact was on quality, with a significant portion of wheat downgraded to general purpose or feed.

• Oil prices have surged in response to instability in north Africa, reaching over USD100/barrel.

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New Zealand and Australia Agribusiness Review

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