A quarterly review of the economic forecasters - August 2011

RODNEY’S RAVINGS

A quarterly review of the economic forecasters’ track record

Embargoed for media release until 1am Thursday 25 August 2011

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

NZIER does an excellent job surveying the economic forecasters each quarter and producing a report that summarises the average or Consensus Forecasts for key economic indicators (e.g. economic growth, residential building activity, consumer spending, interest rates, the exchange rate, etc). In addition to showing the consensus or average predictions for the key economic indicators, NZIER also reports the maximum and minimum predictions. The Consensus Forecasts can be accessed from NZEIR’s website by visiting http://nzier.org.nz/publications/browse-by-type/results/taxonomy%3A53. The economic forecasters surveyed currently are: ANZ-National, ASB, BNZ, Deutsche Bank, First NZ Capital, Goldman Sachs, NZIER, RBNZ, The Treasury, UBS and Westpac.

To supplement this useful free service provided by NZIER we will on a quarterly basis review the accuracy of the Consensus Forecasts for five key economic indicators so people can better assess how much notice they should take of the economic forecasters. This Raving contains the first of the quarterly reviews, including a quantified scoring system. Over time a picture should build up of which of the five economic indicators, if any, the economic forecasters are good at predicting.

Providing an independent quarterly review of the accuracy of the economic forecasters fits with our business philosophy. We at Strategic Risk Analysis are not economic forecasters in the traditional sense. We are in the “business risk management” game as opposed to the “economic forecasting” game. We provide our clients with valuable insights into whether the likes of economic growth, residential building activity, interest rates and the NZD are likely to turn out to be significantly higher or lower than what the economic forecasters are predicting. These insights help our clients make more informed operational and/or strategic decisions. If you want to know more about our services please visit our website (www.sra.co.nz) ...

[Full report: ForecastAccuracyAug11.doc]

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