October 2011 Agri-Market Trends & Forecasts

October 2011 Agri-Market Trends & Forecasts

The Main Report Editor’s monthly predictions based on observations of current trends and statistics

Anhydrous Milk Fat: Prices will ease over the next month before rebounding. Look for prices to strengthen considerably from the second quarter of 2012 by about 20% to $4527 a tonne.

Butter Milk Powder: Prices will remain largely static to the end of November before rising $180 a tonne by year’s end.

Cheddar: Little significant price movement through the rest of the year. Expect a slight increase of about $60 a tonne.

Skim Milk Powder: Prices will ease slightly through to November to $3173 a tonne before climbing again to $3249 in December and further strengthening in the 2nd quarter of 2012 to $3396. Whole Milk Powder: Prices set to ease slightly from $3345 a tonne to $3289 a tonne through to November before rising again in December to $3342. Look for further strengthening through to the end of the second quarter of 2012 by another $166 a tonne.

Hoggett: Look for prices to rise by up to another 10c/kg as meat companies look to utilise processing capacity coming on-stream. A drop in the value of the NZ dollar is also helping firm up prices.

Prime Export Ewes: There will be a small lift in schedule prices as competition for stock heats up.

Prime Cattle: Between now and the end of November prices will lift by up to 120c/kg and this is likely to flow through onto the local trade market.

Store Cattle: Schedule prices will stay at present levels through to the end of November. Crossbred Wool: Prices will remain in the $6.50 to 7.00/kg clean in the coming months with demand continuing to run ahead of supply. Prices which surged at the end of September with the dollar, have dropped against the US dollar.

Mid Micron: Prices have come back about $1kg clean to $9kg although the coarser grade prices have remained strong. Prices expected to remain firm in this range again driven by Chinese demand. Currency: The NZ dollar is fluctuating wildly at present under international pressure, but expect it to resume its upward track.

Land: Expectations commodity prices will hold is seeing demand for land increase, with a rising trend in sales. The current median price per hectare is $15,148, down on $16,968 at the same time last year.

Interest rates: The Reserve Bank recognises the need to keep rates on hold while the global economy is in flux, but expect an OCR increase early next year.

The Main Report Agri-Business Week

www.nzagri-business.co.nz

ENDS

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