Kiwi Supermarkets Appear Set to Ration Marmite

IPREDICT LTD
20 March 2012
www.ipredict.co.nz

Kiwi Supermarkets Appear Set to Ration Marmite

There is a 90% probability New Zealand supermarkets will ration Marmite before the end of July, according to the 6000 registered traders on New Zealand’s online predictions market, iPredict.

Yesterday, after statements by Sanitarium general manager Pierre van Heerden that the company is running short on the iconic product after earthquake damage to its Christchurch plant stopped production, iPredict launched a contract asking whether or not there will be rationing of Sanitarium Marmite at one or more of Progressive Enterprises or Foodstuffs’ Countdown, PAK'nSAVE, and/or New World supermarkets before 1 August.

Anyone who signs up for free as an iPredict trader can start trading the stock at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=MARMITE.RATIONING

The iPredict Administrator, Oliver Ibbetson, said today there had been very heavy trading on the stock since it was launched at 2.30pm NZT yesterday, with thousands of dollars changing hands.

After being launched at just 20c – indicating a 20% probability of rationing – the stock passed 90c – indicating a 90% probability of rationing shortly after midnight.

The New Zealand shortage of Marmite, which has been reported as far afield as London’s Guardian newspaper, has already seen supermarket shelves stripped bare of the popular product and a single jar of Marmite already reaching NZ$64 on the country’s TradeMe auction site.

Despite this – and the high 90% probability of rationing indicated by iPredict – Progressive Enterprises Merchandise general manager Murray Johnston has been reported as saying that the company had not yet seen evidence of bulk buying, and would not be enforcing a purchase limit at its Countdown supermarkets.

For the iPredict contract to pay $1, it is necessary for Progressive Enterprises and/or competitor Foodstuffs to publicly announce, or confirm to iPredict, that restrictions have been placed on the amount of Marmite a customer may purchase on a single visit to a Countdown, PAK'nSAVE, and/or New World supermarket.

Rationing needs to be implemented in only a single Countdown, PAK'nSAVE or New World supermarket, and confirmed by the relevant company, Foodstuffs and/or Progressive Enterprises, for the contract to pay $1.

The price of the contract at any given time will indicate the probability there will be rationing at a supermarket.

ENDS

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