Manpower Employment Outlook Survey

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey

NEW ZEALAND (11 December 2012): The latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey results indicate hiring intentions in New Zealand will remain upbeat in the first three months of the new year, with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +16%.

The survey, which measures the hiring intentions for the coming quarter of over 650 employers, found that 25 per cent of employers New Zealand plan to increase hiring for the first quarter of next year, while 10 per cent plan to decrease hiring and two-thirds (64%) plan on making no changes. The resulting Net Employment Outlook of +16% represents a drop of two percentage points from last quarter, but is unchanged year over year.

Lincoln Crawley, Managing Director ManpowerGroup Australia and New Zealand, said that while the latest unemployment rate increased to 7.3%, New Zealand businesses still face critical skill shortages in key industries and sectors.

He noted that the Christchurch rebuild is having a flow-on effect to most of the regions and industries across the country.

“On top of the direct influence the rebuild is having on job growth in construction, employers in the Transport & Utilities, Manufacturing, and Services sectors in Auckland and Wellington are seeing a good pipeline of jobs from the flow-on work of the rebuild, as goods and services are being manufactured for supply to Christchurch.”

Mr Crawley said the rebuild has taken longer to kick-start economic growth than originally expected.

“There are three prongs to the construction activity going on Christchurch. There is the horizontal rebuild – such as roads and pipes. There are repairs to residential homes, and then we have the vertical rebuild of towers and offices. They are all moving at different paces, and for the most part, slower than expected,” he said.

“The horizontal rebuild began to ramp up in the last quarter, with government spending in the area doubling in November.

“The residential repairs have moved slower than expected but are underway, and, the vertical rebuild, which is still yet to start. We are hearing predictions that the peak of construction will now not hit until the quarter three next year,” Mr Crawley said.

In Christchurch, the stalling rebuild has taken its toll on local employers, causing them to contract hiring intentions for the New Year, where employers indicated a drop in hiring intentions of 10 percentage points, falling to an Outlook of +13%.

Employers in Auckland reported a minimal drop of one percentage point, to an Net Employment Outlook in line with the national result of +16%, while employers in Wellington reported an increase of two percentage points to an Outlook of +17%. This is the first time since mid-2011 that employers in Christchurch reported a weaker hiring outlook than employers in Auckland and Wellington.

The Mining and Construction sector remains the powerhouse in the NZ job market, dropping two percentage points, but still extremely strong with an Outlook +36%.

Mr Crawley said construction employers are competing for skilled workers for rebuild projects, but also to fix the “leaky homes” crisis across the country.

The Finance, Insurance and Real Estate sector continues to be volatile, with hiring intentions rising 11 percentage points to an Outlook of +19%.

The Services sector increased hiring outlook by three percentage points to an Outlook of +25%, while the Transport and Utilities sector fell by four percentage points quarter on quarter, to an Outlook +23%. Both of these sectors have been steady throughout 2012, and look to remain so.

Growing government concern about the increasing costs of the rebuild has led to spending cuts resulting in a paring back in the Public Administration and Education sector, where employers reported a drop of eight percentage points in hiring intentions to an Outlook of +2%.

The Manufacturing sector took a moderate hit, with employers reporting an Outlook of +12%, falling five percentage points from last quarter. The Wholesale Trade and Retail trade also dropped slightly, down four percentage points quarter-on-quarter to an Outlook of +7%.

Mr Crawley said employers need to be aware that there won’t be a flood of new candidates to the market in 2013, with the trend of Kiwis moving overseas only exasperating the problem.

“Most organisations need to look for ways to engage and retain top talent. It’s important for employers to continue to invest in internal training and development programs in order to build the talent they have and attract and retain the talent they will need to be successful in 2013.

“For industries where we are seeing a lot of volatility, proactive workforce planning and strategies can help employers combat the fluctuations and optimise their workforces to run at the most efficient and effective levels,’’ Mr Crawley said.

ManpowerGroup says job seekers should focus on the bright spots in the market.

“Job seekers should take heart from the fact that one in four employers is planning to add to their payrolls in the first three months of the new year. There are still industries hiring and pockets of demand and job seekers should set their sights on those areas,” he said.

Net Employment Outlook Comparison – Region

Q1 2013

Quarter-on-Quarter

change

Year-on-year

change

National

+16%

-2%

0%

Auckland

+16%

-1%

-1%

Christchurch

+13%

-10%

-16%

Wellington

+17%

+2%

+14%

Net Employment Outlook Comparison – Industry

Q1 2013

Quarter-on-quarter

change

Year-on-year

change

National

+16%

-2%

0%

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate

+19%

+11%

+26%

Mining &

Construction

+36%

-2%

+24%

Manufacturing

+12%

-5%

-3%

Wholesale & Retail Trade

+7%

-4%

-12%

Transport & Utilities

+23%

-4%

+1%

Public

Admin/Education

+2%

-8%

-5%

Services

+25%

+3%

0%

-Ends-

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