IG – Afternoon Thoughts and European Opening Calls

IG – Afternoon Thoughts and European Opening Calls
 
Commodities and currencies alike are jostling for position heading into the start of May - as rate cuts, balance sheet expansions and increased stimulus measures dominate the financial headlines.
 
Once more, weak European data was taken with rose-coloured glasses as investors and analysts alike see the German IFO print as another reason for the ECB to cut rates. Expectations are fever-pitch on the possibility, and both the Royal Bank of Scotland and UBS are calling for at least 25 basis points (bps) cut as early as the 7 May meeting. UBS is looking for a 25 bps cut to the refinancing rate, and a 25 bps cut to the marginal lending rate.

The concern here is the ECB’s monetary policy is having to deal with substantial inflation differentials across the 17-nation region - another rate cut will exacerbate the differentials further. There are no doubts credit costs for small to medium enterprises are still too wide, and continue to be the millstone around the neck of Europe’s growth. But, inflation fears seem to have ECB President Mario Draghi in a bind. 
 
EUR/USD does illustrate this fact. The pair is certainly not positioning itself for a cut as it remains stubbornly high considering the current conditions. It added another 0.25% in Asian trade to $1.306 after falling to 1.295 on the German IFO print. This would suggest that the 7 May meeting may be a non-event and that European markets will have to wait a while longer to get their wish.
 
Commodities on the other hand are moving higher on stimulus expectations not just from continental Europe but also the BOE, the Fed, the BOJ and even the RBA and RBNZ.
 
Gold, silver and copper continue to punch higher in Asian trade as physical and paper trading intensifies. Gold is up for the seventh day out of eight on physical demand. The precious metal hit US$1,437 an ounce for the first time since the 16 April capitulation, while copper futures jumped 2% to $3.165. In London the industrial metal found itself back above US$7000 a metric tonne on 3 month futures - the first time in a week.
 
Stimulus will be the single biggest spark for industrial metals, with traders and investors alike appearing to position themselves for the prospect of additional stimulus in the near future.
 
Moving to the markets and the UK will be on everyone’s radar tonight as the country stares down the barrel of a triple-dip recession. Most analysts expect the UK to avoid the unprecedented third round of two quarters of negative growth, with estimates expecting a 0.1% expansion having contracted 0.3% in the fourth quarter.
All eyes are on EUR/GBP as we feel the market is expecting a poor number, although we don’t feel traders are fully positioned for one. The UK has had its coldest March since 1962 and we feel there are downside risks to consensus. What might moderate this is the call from Treasury and the BOE stating they intend to extend their credit-boosting programme by an additional 12 months, in a bid to spur an economy that has recovered little more than half the output seen pre-GCF.
 
The FTSE is also on the radar tonight after US telecommunications company Verizon stated its interest in bidding for the remaining 45% of Verizon Wireless, a deal believed to be worth $100 billion. Its current joint venture partner in Verizon Wireless is Vodafone Plc which is yet to state if it is interested or not, but the news of the bid sent GBP/USD skyrocketing at 11:30am AEST on expectation Vodafone could repatriate the funds.
 
Vodafone makes up 5.92% of the FTSE and is second only to HSBC. With the prospect of the additional cash on the balance sheet and speculation it could be returned to shareholders in the form of a special dividend or an off-market buyback, could see Vodafone and the FTSE punching much higher tonight.
 
With Australia and New Zealand closed for the ANZAC day public holiday, all eyes turned to South Korea and its GDP print. The economy grew by 0.9%, the largest first quarter growth in two years, having expanded 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2012. The print beat Bloomberg estimates by 0.2% and saw the won jumping up against its majors with USD/KRW down 0.3% to 1,113.44. This does show Korea is managing to weather the storm of the sliding yen, and has held its nerve as its Northern counterpart continues to bluster.
 
The Nikkei also moved higher on stimulus bets, however the move was muted by the fact USD/JPY was once again unable to break the parity barrier, adding to concerns that it might not be able to do so which will slow the meteoric rise the Nikkei has experienced this year.
 
With Dow futures flat and soft leads from Asia - Europe looks like opening mixed:
 
Opening Calls FTSE 6437 +6, DAX 7768 +9, CAC 3840 -2, IBEX 8384 -5 
 
IG Markets provides round-the-clock CFD trading on currencies, indices and commodities.  The levels quoted in this email are the latest tradeable price for each market.  The net change for each market is referenced from the corresponding tradeable level at yesterday’s close of the ASX.  These levels are specifically tailored for the Australian trader and take into account the 24hr nature of global markets. 
 
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