Residential property value growth plateaus

Full release with local graphs and table QV_release_April_7_2014.pdf

Media release
7 April, 2014

Residential property value growth plateaus

The latest monthly property value index shows that nationwide residential values for March have increased 8.8% over the past year, and 0.1% over the past three months. This means they are now 12.6% above the previous market peak of late 2007. When adjusted for inflation the nationwide annual increase drops slightly to 7.0% and values remain below the 2007 peak by 2.8%.

The Auckland market has increased 14.3% year on year and values are 28% above the previous peak. When adjusted for inflation values are up 12.5% over the past year and are 10.5% above the 2007 peak.

QV National Spokesperson, Andrea Rush said, “The LVR speed limits and the Reserve Bank signalling further interest rate hikes is likely to be contributing to a levelling off in the growth of property values in Auckland and for the first time in more than two years we are seeing a decrease in some areas of that market.”

“Home loan approvals nationwide are also down about 10% on the same time last year; overall sales volumes are similarly down and the amount of activity from first home buyers around the country is also well down on what it was prior to the LVR speed limits being applied in October.”

“The New Zealand price index is showing a slight tick downwards, which doesn’t represent a nationwide drop in values, but rather a reflection of the impact of a drop in the Christchurch price index.”

“We suspect this is due to the rating revaluation of Christchurch released in March, in which there was an increase in the overall rating value of the city. This probably explains the sharp downward movement of the Christchurch index this month, and next month the real trend will be clear.”

Auckland

The rate of growth in property values across the Auckland region has slowed considerably with values increasing 0.9% in the past three months and 0.3% since February.

Some areas have seen a decrease in values over the past three months including Auckland – South which is down by 0.5% however values there are up 13.8% year on year and 36% since the previous peak of 2007 which is a national high. Manukau East is also down by 0.6% but similarly is up 13.7% year on year and 28.7% since 2007, and Auckland City – Islands values are down 0.3% since December but is up 9.6% year on year and 14.1% since 2007.

QV Valuer Bruce Wiggins said, “There’s still good activity in the Auckland market, with land remaining the biggest driver at the moment, particularly if it is sub-divisible.”
“We’re also seeing high demand for pockets of new construction within existing residential areas and these home and land packages are achieving good prices which could be a result of LVR Restrictions being removed from new construction,” he said.
“Examples include new residential developments at Papakura Heights, Karaka Lakes and Karaka Harbourside Estate all these new subdivisions are situated in areas not historically sought after.”

Hamilton

Growth in residential property values in Hamilton City have also slowed with an increase of 0.4% over the past three months. Values in North East Hamilton are up 0.4% in the same period but are up 7.1% year on year compared to a 4.9% for Hamilton city year on year.

QV Valuer Richard Allen said, “First home buyers seem to have completely left the market as a result of the LVR speed limits and there is very little activity at the entry level end of the market.”

“Well presented homes at the middle and higher end of the market are still selling well and the market remains stable in terms of values.”

Wellington

The Wellington market remained steady with house prices in the region up by 2.8% year on year, and 0.7% in the last three months. Wellington West led the value increases in the capital with values up by 2.3% in the past three months. Lower Hutt City, Wellington East and Wellington City also saw increases of 1.6%, 1.2% and 1.0% during the same period.
Values in Upper Hutt City and Porirua City have decreased by 0.5% since December and the Kapiti Coast is down by just 0.1%.

QV Valuer, Pieter Geill said, “Buyers are more cautious than they were six months ago and are looking for homes where all the work has been done. Properties with compliance issues or title defects are more difficult to sell.”

“There are a lot of listings coming to market so buyers have greater choice and face less pressure to make a purchase decision,” he said.
“LVR speed limits have definitely resulted in less interest across the board from first home buyers.”

Christchurch and Dunedin

In the past three months values in across Christchurch have cooled with the city showing a decrease of 1.5% overall however city values are up 8.3% year on year and 18% since the previous peak of 2007.

In terms of suburbs around the city, Christchurch East is down 2.4% since December but up 5% year on year and 8.9% since 2007. Christchurch Hills is down 3.0% in the same period but up 3.3% year on year and 8.9% since 2007. Christchurch Southwest is down 0.6% and central and northern suburbs are also down 0.4%, but again values in these areas of the city are up 11.4% and 10.7% year on year respectively and 25.3% and 19% since 2007.

QV Valuer Daryl Taggart said “The market has quietened down somewhat from previous highs but there is still plenty of activity.”

“The LVR changes may have forced first home buyers to wait and save a larger deposit or look elsewhere for finance, but, first home buyers are still active in Christchurch buying houses and seeking valuations,” he said.

Property values in Dunedin remain steady with the Peninsula and Coastal properties showing the biggest increase in value at 2.1% over the past three months. While Dunedin City is down 0.2%, Dunedin South and Dunedin Central and North are both down 0.7% during the same period.

QV Valuer Duncan Jack said “Dunedin property values are fairly stable at the moment and while there are still people wanting to buy their first homes the LVR changes has meant these buyers are having to wait until they have a larger deposit.”

Provincial centres

Values in the provincial centres are still variable. In the North Island, Whangarei District is up 1.2% over the past three months and 4.9 % year on year. The Kaipara District is also up 0.7% in the past three months and 7.9% year on year. While values in Otorohanga District are down 13% in the past three months but show a 5.4% increase year on year.

In the South Island, outside of Christchurch the Waimate District saw the greatest rise in values over the past year with values up 10.3% on this time last year and up 6.2% in the past three months. Kaikoura District was also up 5.6% year on year and 6.6% since December.

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