When Will Oil Prices Rise?

Press Release – Release date: Wednesday 18th February 2015

When Will Oil Prices Rise?

The next rise in the price of oil may not be as hard to predict as some analysts believe. According to a New Zealand company Kenton-Dau Limited there are precise dates this year when the spot price for Crude Oil is likely to experience a significant rise.

The company claims that Crude Oil has periods of rising and falling prices that occur at fixed intervals. These periods have a 65% track record of wins over 25 years. The win rate increases for the next rise in prices due this year to 95%. However the secret sauce is not more rigorous analysis of economic or industry data but in understanding how the markets work.

“If the Crude Oil market was a car,” says the company’s Principal, Branton Kenton-Dau, “we would not be looking at where it has been in order to predict where it was headed. Instead we would lift up the bonnet and look at the engine.”

The reason for the regular periods of price rise and fall the company claims is because the markets work in a way similar to an electric motor. When the rotor inside the motor is at certain positions it generates the periods of rise and fall. In electrical jargon these periods are called ‘j’.

The approach is being closely monitored by private and institutional investors in Australia and New Zealand. In August and September last year the system predicted a 19% fall in Brent Crude prices. Based on past performance the next rise in prices this year may be of similar size. “Because the periods are totally regular we know when the next rise and fall of prices is likely to be,” says Kenton-Dau. “Brent Crude and other markets operate according to the principles of electricity. Knowing this significantly improves our chances of predicting their movements. “

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