NZ's Employment Outlook weakest in more than five years

New Zealand’s Employment Outlook weakest in more than five years

74% of employers have no plans to alter workforces in the coming quarter

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Q3 2015

NEW ZEALAND (9 June 2015): The latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, released today, has found that New Zealand employers are entering quarter three with the weakest Employment Outlook in more than five years. However, outlooks remain positive in all seven industry sectors and in the three regions included in the survey, and nearly three of every four employers indicated they would keep current payrolls intact at least through the end of September.

Of the 650 New Zealand employers surveyed, 17 per cent anticipate an increase in their staff levels, 6 per cent anticipate staff reductions, and 74 per cent expect no change in their current workforce. The resulting Net Employment Outlook of +12% is down five percentage points quarter-on-quarter and fifteen percentage points year-on-year.

Lincoln Crawley, Managing Director, ManpowerGroup ANZ, said the weakening Employment Outlook is not completely unexpected as the local economy is intrinsically linked to the price of dairy, which is currently falling.

“What we are seeing is a slowdown in hiring across the board as overall business confidence in New Zealand is driven down by the falling dairy price. Persistent skills shortages also mean that businesses who do want to hire may be lowering their expectations of being able to do so.”

Outlooks in Auckland and Christchurch weaken by five and nine percentage points, with employers recording NEOs of +14% and +12%, respectively. Wellington employers recorded the weakest Outlook across the regions of +8%, but were the only regional employers to report a quarter-on-quarter increase in hiring intention of one percentage point.

While most sectors foreshadowed a slowdown in hiring this quarter, the Mining & Construction sector bucked the trend with employers in the sector recording an NEO of +19%, up six percentage points on the previous quarter.

Despite a 13 percentage point drop quarter-on-quarter the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector continues to be the most likely to hire, with employers recording a NEO of +22%. While employers in the Transportation & Utilities sector are the least likely to hire, with a NEO of +8%, down 18 percentage points quarter-on-quarter.

“The construction sector in New Zealand continues to thrive off the back of commercial and residential builds in Auckland and Christchurch. Consequently we are seeing growth across Finance, Insurance & Real Estate and particular demand for real estate sales professionals. A number of people are now returning to the industry after a break as demand is so high,” Mr Crawley noted.

Employers in the Services and Manufacturing sectors recorded decreases of four and five percentage points quarter-on-quarter to record NEOs of +14% and +11% respectively. While Wholesale Trade & Retail Trade and Public Administration saw smaller decrease in hiring intention of three percentage points quarter-on-quarter, both recording an Outlook of +11%.

Only large company employers are anticipating growth in hiring activity this quarter, recording a NEO of +21%, up six percentage points quarter-on-quarter. Medium, small and micro business employers recorded decreases in hiring intention of -14%, -6% and -3%, respectively, quarter-on-quarter.

“Small to medium business make up the majority of New Zealand’s economy, and by nature are the most nimble and readily able to increase hiring during a growth period. Concurrently they are just as ready to react to economic uncertainty and cease hiring, as we have seen in hiring intentions for the coming quarter. Smaller organisations are holding off on hiring as they wait to see if an economic slowdown is around the corner.”

ENDS

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