Record high migration stokes 41-year high population growth

Strongest population growth since 1974 as migration hits new records in October

By Tina Morrison

Nov. 23 (BusinessDesk) - New Zealand annual net migration hit a new high in October as more people arrived from than departed for Australia for the first time in more than 20 years.

The country had a net population gain of 62,500 through migration in the year through October, the 15th straight month a record has been set, according to Statistics New Zealand. Migrant arrivals rose 12 percent to a record 120,100 while departures fell 3 percent to 57,000.

New Zealand recorded its first annual gain in migrants from Australia since the November 1991 year as 100 fewer New Zealand citizens departed for Australia than arrived from across the Tasman. Increased migration from India, the Philippines and China also helped drive migration to new records.

“Ongoing low departures and strength in arrivals will cause New Zealand's annual population growth rate to reach its highest pace since 1974,” Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod said in a note. “High population growth is helping to maintain a reasonable rate of GDP growth. But at the same time, the preponderance of people in the labour market is keeping wage growth lower than it would otherwise be.”

Strong migration is stoking demand in the New Zealand economy, particularly in Auckland, where an overheated property market is seen by the Reserve Bank as a threat to financial stability.

Auckland was the biggest net recipient of migrants in the latest year, at 29,000, followed by Canterbury with 6,800. Just over half of all migrants to state an address on their arrival card were moving to the Auckland region.

Some 27,500 migrants arrived on student visas in the latest year. Of those, 10,800 came from India, and 5,300 from China.

Some 36,800 migrants arrived on work visas, with the UK the biggest source country with 6,100.

“We expect that net immigration will remain strong for some time yet. But the current strength will eventually moderate,” said Westpac’s Ranchhod. “Many of those who arrived on student and temporary work visas will start to leave over the coming years. In addition, the New Zealand labour market has been softening, while Australia’s has been picking up. If this continues, and there are indications it will, New Zealand will start to look like less of an attractive destination.”

New Zealand welcomed a record 3.06 million short-term visitors in the latest year, up 9 percent from the year earlier. Of those, 1.31 million were from Australia, 335,400 from China and 237,700 from the US.

New Zealand residents also took a record 2.39 million overseas trips in the year through October, up 6 percent from the year earlier. Almost half their trips were to Australia. For the month of October, New Zealand travellers took a record 217,000 overseas trips, up 5 percent from the year earlier month and largely driven by holiday travellers to the UK during the final stages of the Rugby World Cup, Statistics NZ said.

(BusinessDesk)

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