HiFX Weekly FX Technical Report

NZD/USD
Last Price: 0.7428
Daily: Prior/notable 0.7550 rally peak coming back into focus
Weekly:Past 18 months price action seen as accumulative
Support 1: 0.7315/25
Support2: 0.7240/50
Resistance1: 0.7550/60
Resistance2: 0.7620/30

Short to medium term NZD trends remain bullish with higher targets attainable in coming weeks. Values are now in sight of prior 0.7550 highs and while additional preparation might prove necessary before this gives way re-emergent weakness is nonetheless seen as corrective. Dips have little obvious support until 0.7325 but more substantial buying interest at 0.7250 (extending back to 0.7100) limits negative risk going forwards. Otherwise the market is increasingly looking toward both 0.7750 and 0.8000 areas eventually.

NZD/AUD
Last Price: 0.9200
Daily: Pivotal 0.9250 resistance looks vulnerable to attack
Weekly:NZD prices still recovering back up into ongoing range
Support 1: 0.9115/25
Support2: 0.8940/50
Resistance1: 0.9245/55
Resistance2: 0.9315/25

Although several supports have given way in recent months NZD values here have thus far avoided forming a significant top pattern -with the market remaining rangebound as a consequence. Prices are effectively still pivoting 0.9250 or so at present and while an eventual downside break of key 0.8750 support cannot be ruled out an obvious attempt to break lower was spurned during Q4 last year. On this basis (assuming prices regain 0.9245/55 resistance instead) an extension towards 0.9325 and 0.9400 is envisaged next.

NZD/EUR
Last Price: 0.5985
Daily: Mkt tracking sideways (trying to re-base) around 0.6000
Weekly: /Prior downtrend stalled either side of 0.5750 for now
Support 1: 0.5865/75
Support2: 0.5795/05
Resistance1: 0.6090/00
Resistance2: 0.6170/80

Despite some significant perambulations in recent years NZD values here have thus far struggled to sustain moves away from their effective 0.6250 pivot. Recent losses found good support below 0.5750 and as a result the market appears stable again for now at least. Rebounds are also limited by supply starting around 0.6100 and 0.6175 but fresh erosion equally has some demand at 0.5875 and 0.5800. A (direct) loss of 0.5720/30 will infer a sizeable distributive top but further sideways action is otherwise likely initially.

NZD/JPY
Last Price: 80.95
Daily: Positive but with some momentum loss in recent days
Weekly: Broad NZD range/base formation still developing
Support 1: 79.50/60
Support2: 77.95/05
Resistance1: 81.95/05
Resistance2: 83.50/60

Continuing the theme of effectively rangebound NZD cross action prices here look content to track sideways either side of 80.00 for now at least. Broad studies still argue this holding pattern has accumulative properties but until key resistance (which probably extends up to 85.00) is penetrated upside scope remains limited. As/when seen enough compression is already apparent to enable a subsequent extension beyond 90.00 as well but -as elsewhere- attention is being diverted to the component USD pairs at present.

NZD/GBP
Last Price: 0.5224
Daily: /Mkt still attempting to bottom out at/above 0.5000
Weekly: Broader NZD descending sequence remains intact
Support 1: 0.5095/05
Support2: 0.4990/00
Resistance1: 0.5445/55
Resistance2: 0.5550/60

Irrespective of whether current/recent NZD erosion is corrective (as broad studies suggest) the market is still struggling to confirm a meaningful base. Scope exists for another rally in coming weeks provided 0.5000 remains intact beforehand but any such extension towards 0.5450/0.5550 will nevertheless still be seen as (wave C) corrective without additional/accumulative evidence. NB: while localised demand exists at 0.5100 as well 0.4875 and 0.4750 would then be targeted next once 0.4990/00 key support gives way.

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