HiFX Data Update - ANZ Business Confidence Release

The ANZ Business Confidence & Own Activity Outlook figures for August have just been released.

The Business Confidence improved sharply:

-38.3 % vs -50.3 % (July)

This was the first improvement in Business Confidence since November 2017 figures.

Firms’ Own Activity Outlook was also better compared with July:

+7.8% vs +3.8%

The NZD has jumped higher in immediate response.

Current indicative levels are:

NZDUSD 0.6645 / 0.6670
NZDAUD 0.9160 / 0.9195
NZDEUR 0.5655 / 0.5680
NZDGBP 0.5045 / 0.5070
NZDJPY 75.15 / 75.40

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The NZDUSD opens at 0.7032 (mid-rate) this morning.

The Kiwi fell against all the majors except the AUD and has struggled to gain traction above 0.7050

Technically the NZD/USD has traded to an overnight high of 0.7057 which represents the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement of the 0.7395 (Apr 13 high) to 0.6849 (the May 16 low). The outlook for next week would be for a move lower to support at 0.6960 initially with a bigger move lower after the Fed hike interest rates on Thursday 14th at 6am

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, pointing to a further tightening in labour market conditions. The robust labour market and firming inflation have cemented expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week. Many economists believe the U.S. central bank will hike rates two more times after its June 12-13 policy meeting to prevent the economy from overheating. The Fed lifted borrowing costs in March and forecast at least two more rate increases for this year.

In the week ending June 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted U.S. Initial Claims was 222,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 221,000 to 223,000. The 4-week moving average was 225,500.

The Federal Reserve said U.S. Consumer Credit in April slowed to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.9%, or $9.3 billion, down from 3.8% in March. Economists expected a gain of $14 billion. This was the third straight monthly slowdown in credit growth.

In the three months to May U.K. House Prices were 0.2% higher than the previous quarter and on an annual basis they are 1.9% higher. House prices grew by 1.5% on a monthly basis, in contrast to a decline seen in April. Both of these measures have fallen since reaching a recent peak, in the final months of last year. These latest price changes reflect a relatively subdued UK housing market. After a sharp rise in January, mortgage approvals have softened in the past three months.

Global equity are mainly lower: Dow +0.19%, S&P 500 -0.22%, FTSE -0.10%, DAX -0.15%, CAC -0.17%, Nikkei +0.87%, Shanghai -0.18%.

Gold prices are up 0.1% currently trading at $1,297 an ounce. WTI Crude Oil prices surged 1.8% higher trading at $65.98 a barrel.

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