XE Morning Update November 25, 2019

NZDUSD 0.6401 -0.2%
NZDEUR 0.5814 0.0%
NZDGBP 0.4966 -0.5%
NZDJPY 69.74 0.1%
NZDAUD 0.9451 0.1%
NZDCAD 0.8520 -0.1%
GBPNZD 2.0134 0.5%

The Kiwi has been looking for direction of late, and so far, is yet to find it. There is a report out from the Global Times claiming China and the US have reached broad consensus on a phase one deal. There is yet to really be the follow through comments from China and the US confirming this though, and as such the report has fallen a little flat, with only equities really rallying on the back of it. This has yet to flow through to a broader risk on move so far.

One thing which may be holding the markets back, is signals from China that they want to renew its ties with the EU, and focus on Europe in 2020. On the one hand this could be seen as a basic negotiation strategy, on the other it does seem logical they would want to diversify away from the US, especially considering what has happened this year. If the former, then it may force Trumps hand slightly, and actually make a deal more likely and quicker. The latter, and China may want to stall for time and not lock themselves into too much. Net result is you can see why the market is taking the headline with a grain of salt.

At 10:05 pm tonight we have the RBA Gov Lowe giving a speech entitled “Unconventional Monetary Policy: Some lessons from overseas”. While probably a little general to be market moving, it could actually be interesting if the conclusion is that Unconventional Monetary Policy, i.e. negative Interest rates, are not working. If that’s the case, it would be seen as less likely for Australia to go there, and hence could be a positive catalyst for the AUD.

Global equity markets are up across the board, some breaking to new all-time highs, - Dow +0.49%, S&P 500 +0.60%, FTSE +0.95%, DAX +0.63%, CAC +0.54%, Nikkei +1.10%, Shanghai +0.72%.

Gold prices are off slightly, down 0.4% to $1,456 an ounce. WTI Crude Oil prices are flat at $57.71 a barrel.

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