Global Airline Seat Capacity Forecast To Be Back To 85% By The End Of 2022

The international travel bounce back is predicted to continue for the rest of the year with global airline seat capacity forecast to be back to 85 per cent of pre-COVID levels by the end of 2022, according to FCM Consulting’s latest Global Quarterly Trend Report*.

The report also reveals that the top 20 corporate airlines across the world are also on the rebound, with a global average of 87 per cent seats offered in 2022, versus 2019.

“There are now 141 countries completely open to the fully vaccinated. Our data shows the advance booking days globally averaged 26 days in Q2 in 2022, compared to 18 days in Q1 of this year,” said FCM Consulting General Manager Felicity Burke.

“We’re seeing an upward tick in aviation globally with the second quarter showing a steady monthly growth in seats offered, down 23 per cent when compared to the same time-period pre-COVID.

“As demand continues to increase across the world, we can now forecast that for the calendar year ending 2022, global seat availability will be back to 85 per cent of pre-COVID levels, a bounce back that signifies the pent-up demand for people wanting to travel for both business and leisure.

“Our H2-2022 forecasts have the majority of global regions 10 per cent below 2019 seat volumes, but North America and South America are defying these stats, with both continents expected to be four per cent above 2019 levels by November this year.”

Ms Burke said that closer to home, and in terms of seats offered, the New Zealand domestic market is forecast to be back to 79 per cent of pre-Covid levels for the full 2022 year. Similarly, across the Tasman, Australia is predicted to be back to 83 per cent domestically for the year.

“When it comes to airfares globally and across the APAC region, they have fluctuated across the board with average ticket purchase price increases on routes like Auckland to Melbourne but with reductions between Melbourne and Sydney for the past quarter,” she said.

“It’s now more critical than ever that corporate procurement teams have well-developed travel category plans and that they’re working closely with their travel management company to ensure travellers are getting the best options, every time.”

*The report draws on global data sourced from FCM bookings, for travel during April to June 2022 (Q2-2022) and uses Cirium aviation data as of 19 July 2022 and STR data 20 July 2022.

Please click here to download the full report.

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