The Recession Has Arrived

New Zealand’s job market has taken a nosedive with unemployment predicted to rise in the next three months.

The country’s peak Recruitment and Staffing body, RCSA has just released its quarterly Job Report and the data indicates the economic downturn has arrived.

In the past three months Job Postings have taken a nosedive with employment opportunities plummeting 10.8% in the June quarter. Job postings are 23.7% lower than a year ago.

“The data suggests that New Zealand is very much in the thick of economic downturn, with the country officially in recession and job ads declining steeply in recent months,” says RCSA CEO, Charles Cameron.

The report is the most comprehensive of its kind on the market, breaking down job posting trends by industry, occupation and employment type. Concerningly, job opportunities have dipped across both permanent and flexible employment types. Demand for flexible staff has fallen a staggering 25% and permanent job offerings are down 7%.

“There is definitely concern about what the market is doing and where it is heading but the lack of job postings could also be because employers have given up on using job boards.

“The country’s skills shortage is so dire, it’s highly likely that businesses have halted recruitment efforts because of the severe lack of talent. Add in recent natural disasters, economic challenges and a looming election, it is little wonder the job market has been impacted.”

The enormous decline in flexible postings in comparison to permanent jobs is an interesting development. Flexible work generally increases when there is instability in the economy.

“This could once again be a side effect of the skill shortages. It is very possible that employers are trying to fill permanent positions to lock down staff in a talent poor environment,” explains Cameron.

The quarter 2 findings are somewhat at odds with feedback from RCSA members, who despite admitting there has been a recent decrease in market activity, job opportunities appeared steady and far healthier than during the acute skills shortage of 2022.

“Unfortunately, data doesn’t lie. New Zealand looks like it’s in for some tough times ahead. The next quarter is crucial and will give us a better indication how long we will be riding this ‘downturn’ wave.

“The fact our members remain relatively optimistic is a good sign. They are a valuable barometer when it comes to interpreting what is actually going on, on the ground. That they aren’t too concerned should provide some comfort.”

Key dips in job postings

• Accommodation and Food Services down 36.6%
• Technology Professionals down 28.7%
• Service and Community Workers down 26.7%
• Labourers, Drivers, and Operators down 24.4%
• Education and Training down 21.8%
• Mining, Construction and Utilities down 16.8%
• Manufacturing and Distribution down 16.6%
• Financial and Insurance Services 15.5%
• Professional, Scientific, and Technical down 12.3%

The full Jobs Report can be accessed via the link below.

https://www.thejobsreport.co.nz/report/new-zealand-the-jobs-report-april-june-2023/

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