Property Values Teetering On The Brink Of Winter

New Zealand Aotearoa has just recorded its first quarterly home value reduction since July last year – albeit a modest one.

The latest QV House Price Index shows home values decreased by an average of 0.2% nationally over the three months to the end of May 2024 – down slightly from the 0.1% quarterly growth reported for April – with the average value now sitting at $923,713. That figure is 3.9% higher than the same time last year and 13.2% ($140,052) lower than its peak in late 2021.

The average rate of home value growth either decreased, or the rate of decline increased, in nearly all of the main urban areas we monitor. However, all of the reductions were relatively modest, with Auckland leading the reductions with a 1.4% average home value deficit this quarter – marking four straight months of negative growth.

Wellington (-0.3%) also recorded its first average quarterly home value reduction since the end of winter last year. Tauranga (-1%), Hamilton (-0.4%), Palmerston North (-0.3%), and Nelson (-0.2%) all experienced similarly small quarterly declines.

At the other end of the spectrum, and the country, Invercargill recorded the largest amount of home value growth at 3.2% for the May quarter. Rotorua (2.5%), Christchurch (1.4%), and Dunedin (1.9%) also recorded notable, yet still relatively modest, quarterly gains.

QV operations manager James Wilson commented: “Home values continue to bobble up and down from month to month and quarter to quarter, but they aren’t moving one way or the other with any real conviction. The housing market has largely stalled, and now the seasonal slowdown is well and truly upon us, with both buyers and sellers continuing to grapple with difficult economic conditions.

“Against this challenging backdrop, an excess of housing stock on the market is maintaining downward pressure on prices. So those who are in a position to buy right now, have the upper hand. Purchasers are spoilt for choice and appear to have time on their side, with nothing to suggest that house prices are going to take off again soon.”

“Of course, saving a sizeable deposit for a home and getting pre-approval from the bank is no mean feat in this environment, with the axing of the First Home Grant scheme also increasing the odds of home ownership for some first-home buyers,” he added.

This is among a raft of recent regulatory changes that will impact the property market this year. From 1 July, banks will have to comply with new debt-to-income (DTI) restrictions that will limit the amount of debt that borrowers will be able to take on, relative to their income. At the same time, loan-to-value ratios (LVRs) will be loosened, and the bright-line test will also be shortened to two years.

Despite all this, Mr Wilson still expected the market to stay flat to gently softening throughout winter. “Property owners might look at our latest figures and start getting that sinking feeling again. While first-home home buyers might even look at them with renewed optimism. But the reality is a market that is stuck between a rock and hard place, at least until mortgage pressure eventually lifts.”

“We may see more listings come onto the market due to the changing bright-line test restrictions, which will offer buyers even more choice. Otherwise higher mortgage rates are already severely restricting buyers, so changes to DVRs and the introduction of DTIs won’t have a material effect in the short to medium term. Interest rates remain the dominant restraining factor,” Mr Wilson concluded.

Northland

Home value growth has slowed across the wider Northland region – and even reduced this quarter in the Far North.

Whangarei saw the most growth this quarter, with the average home increasing in value by 0.6% to $739,696. Home values also increased by 0.4% in Kaipara to reach a new average of $861,129, and went down 0.8% in the Far North, where the average home value is now $711,695.

All three districts experienced less growth in this monthly QV House Price Index than in the last one.

Auckland

Residential property values have now reduced for four straight months in Auckland.

The latest QV House Price Index shows the Super City’s average home value decreased by 1.4% to $1,268,196 this quarter. It follows four consecutive monthly reductions, including by 0.4% in February, 0.2% in March, 0.1% in April, and now 1.1% in May.

Only Rodney bucked the downward trend this quarter, with the average home value increasing by 0.4% to $1,265,893. Otherwise all of Auckland’s former territorial authority areas experienced average declines of between 0.7% (Waitakere) and 2.5% (Manukau) this quarter.

On an annualised basis, the average rate of home value growth is still positive year-on-year in all of these districts except Papakura (-0.1%) and Franklin (-1.4%), with Waitakere (0.2%) teetering on the edge.

Local QV registered valuer Hugh Robson commented: “Although the number of new properties coming onto the market appears to have slowed now, there are still plenty available on the market today – many of which have been sitting unsold for months.

“As a result, asking prices have started to decline, which is an indicator that vendors are now accepting that the market is no longer what it was in January and February.”

Tauranga

Homes in Tauranga are worth 1% less on average than they were three months ago.

The QV House Price Index for May 2024 shows the city’s average home value reduced by 1% to $1,030,608 this quarter – down from a three-month average rolling rate of 0.2% growth in our April 2024 index.

However, Tauranga’s average home value is still 2.6% higher than at the same time last year.

Waikato

Waikato’s residential property market appears to have hit a proverbial wall in May.

Home values reduced by an average of 0.4% this quarter – including by 0.5% in the month of May – which is the Waikato region’s first average quarterly decline since September last year.

In Hamilton, the average home value reduced by 0.4% to $787,873 this quarter, after recording no growth whatsoever in last month’s quarterly index and a 0.1% quarterly decline back in March. However, the city’s average home value is still 1.1% higher than the same time last year.

“It’s the third month in a row with little to no growth in Hamilton,” said local QV property consultant Marshall Wu. “The regional market is also showing softer growth now, which is consistent with the imminent arrival of the quieter winter trading season.”

“Higher interest rates continue to be the primary constraint for buyers in the property market – and now it appears they could stay higher for longer, with inflation persisting above 3%. Buyers are benefiting from a wider selection of options, reduced urgency, and increased bargaining power.”

Mr Wu said there were multiple uncertainties on the immediate horizon – including the introduction of debt-to-income (DTI) ratios and the relaxation of loan-to-value ratio (LVR) regulations. “The elimination of the First Home Grant may also cause concern among first-home buyers, as they continue to constitute a significant portion of current sales activity and overall market share.”

Taranaki

New Plymouth is one of just a handful of New Zealand Aotearoa’s main centres where the average rate of home value growth has actually increased this quarter.

The city’s average home value increased by 1% to $720,775 in the May quarter, up slightly on the 0.7% growth recorded for the April quarter. That figure is now also 2% higher than at the same time last year.

Meanwhile, home values are down on average this quarter in both Stratford (-2.6%) and South Taranaki (-3.1%).

Hawke’s Bay

The housing market remains relatively flat across Napier and Hastings.

The latest QV House Price Index shows the average home value in Napier has increased 1.2% to $765,406 in the May quarter, while the average home value in Hastings has also increased 0.9% to $792,907 at the same time.

It’s an abrupt turnaround from the small April quarter declines of 0.2% in Napier and 0.7% in Hastings, as reported in our previous index.

QV Hawke’s Bay manager Damian Hall commented: “The market remains generally flat overall. Things are still moving, but properties are taking longer to sell. Supply still outweighs demand, so buyers have more choice, but banks are still tight on lending. We suspect activity will be typically quiet over the coming winter months.”

Palmerston North

Home values have decreased again in Palmerston North.

For the second month in a row, its average home value has reduced – this time by 0.6% in May. The city’s quarterly rate of decline is now 0.3%.

However, at $640,390, the average home value is still 2.6% higher than at the same time last year.

Local QV registered valuer Olivia Betts commented: “The overall statistics have continued to show a relatively stable pattern since June 2023, with only a 0.2% increase in average home value over the past six months.”

“The bottom end of the market still appears to be struggling more than the upper end. We are seeing older, more dated stock, sitting on the market for a prolonged period of time, while agents have indeed reported a stronger level of interest in properties that have been recently fully modernised,” she added.

Wellington

The Wellington region has recorded its first small quarterly home value reduction since August last year.

The QV House Price Index for May shows the region’s average home value decreased by 0.3% to $872,178 this quarter. It follows average increases of 0.6% in the three months to the end of April, and 2% in the three months to the end of March.

For the fourth index in a row, Kapiti Coast has recorded the largest amount of positive quarterly growth – its average home value increasing by 2.1% to $847,716 (down from the 3.3% growth reported in the April quarter).

The average home value also grew in Porirua this quarter by 0.8% to $845,911, and by 0.5% to $765,434 in Upper Hutt; it reduced by 1.2% to $1,003,571 in Wellington City, and went down just 0.1% to $793,578 in Hutt City.

“The market continues to soften due to the high number of properties on the market, economic head winds, and job insecurity in the region,” said local QV senior consultant David Cornford.

“We are starting to see more vendors pulling their properties from the market as they are not achieving the price they expect. Those vendors that require a sale for financial reasons are being forced to accept lower prices in many cases.”

Mr Cornford said the local market was likely to remain “sluggish” until economic conditions improved.

Nelson

Nelson recorded a modest home value reduction this quarter – its first since September last year.

The QV House Price Index for May 2024 shows that the average home value decreased locally by 0.2% to $777,276 in the three months to the end of May. It represents a turnaround from our previous index, which showed an average 0.8% quarterly rise for the three months to the end of April.

The average home value is now 0.8% lower than at the same time last year, and 14.4% below its peak in early 2022.

QV Nelson/Marlborough manager Craig Russell commented: “It’s a buyers’ market, with relatively low sales volumes and a substantial number of properties available for sale. As a result, purchasers are being more selective and prudent with their offers.”

“Going forward into winter, we would expect a relatively quiet market with debt-to-income restrictions coming into effect from 1 July, and the First Home Grant being cancelled,” he added.

Meanwhile, the average home value in the neighbouring Tasman district has increased by 2.7% this quarter. “Properties in Tasman are currently outperforming Nelson, which is likely due to the type of property being transacted, with owner-occupiers being more active in Tasman compared to Nelson, which traditionally has more first-home buyers and investors,” Mr Russell said.

West Coast

Residential property values continue to prove highly volatile on the wild West Coast of New Zealand.

The latest QV House Price Index shows average home values continue to fluctuate from month to month, with Buller up 2.7%, and Grey and Westland down 3.9% and 2.8% respectively.

The average home value in Buller is now $381,630, which is 10.3% higher than the same time last year. In Grey, the average value is $425,570, which is 15.8% higher than the same time last year; Westland’s average value is 6.8% higher annually at $437,354.

Canterbury

Home values are still moving slowly upward across much of Canterbury.

The QV House Price Index shows for the quarter to the end of May 2024 values for most districts in the Canterbury region have had quite nominal changes – most positive, with this following the trends of the previous few months.

The latest index shows residential property values increased across the overall Canterbury region by 1.4% this quarter – up from 0.7% growth in the three months to the end of April, but the same rate as in the three months to the end of March. Annually, the average home value is 5.4% higher than at the same time last year.

In the region’s largest centre, Christchurch, the average home value has also increased by 1.4% to $770,898 this quarter. Its annual growth is shown as 6%.

Across the wider Christchurch region, the adjoining Selwyn district recorded an average quarterly increase of 1.1% and an average value of $843,120. The Waimakariri district had a nominal increase of 0.4% for the quarter and an average value of $715,423.

Local QV registered valuer Rod Thornton commented: “With regards to Christchurch and the surrounding districts, the latest quarterly index figures show more of the same – with only quite nominal changes, which reflect what we have seen over the past few months with a slower market.”

Otago

Home values continue to slowly build across most of the Otago region.

Only Clutha saw a small decline this quarter, with its average home value reducing by 2.5% to $409,028. All other districts experienced growth of between 0.1% and 1.9%.

The average value of a home in Dunedin is currently $646,151, which is 4.6% higher than the same time last year, despite dropping a fraction of a percentage point during the month of May.

QV registered valuer Rebecca Johnston commented: “Last month saw the Reserve Bank continue to hold the Official Cash Rate at 5.5% for the seventh consecutive review, continuing to cement the end of interest rate hikes and positive movement towards easing economic inflationary pressures.

“Debt-to-income ratios (DTIs) have now also been adopted, with the intention to constrain lending and therefore reduce the rate of house price growth. We expect this to impact investors and owner occupiers the most, in comparison to first-home buyers,” she said.

Queenstown

Queenstown’s rate of home value growth has flattened.

The average home value locally has increased by just 0.1% to $1,827,924 in in the May quarter – down from 1.1% growth in the April quarter.

The average value is now 6.4% higher than the same time last year.

Invercargill

Invercargill recorded more home value growth this quarter than any of New Zealand’s main centres.

Our QV House Price Index for May 2024 shows the city’s average home value increased by a relatively robust – at least by national standards – 3.2% this quarter to $486,276, which is the same rate of growth recorded in the April quarter.

It compares to an average decrease of 0.2% nationally over the same period of time.

QV registered valuer Andrew Ronald commented: “Home values in the city have increased by an average of 7.1% in the 12 months to the end of May 2024. There is healthy demand from first-home buyers, and investors are beginning to return to the market with the restoration of interest tax deductibility rules. However, continued high interest rates appear to be limiting price growth.”

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