House Hunters 'In Hibernation' Until Conditions Improve

Frosty economic conditions continue to impede New Zealand Aotearoa’s now ice-cold housing market, causing home values to dip with the temperature in most main centres.

The latest QV House Price Index shows home values decreased by an average of 0.9% nationally over the three months to the end of June 2024 – a slightly larger rate of reduction than the 0.2% quarterly decline for May – with the average home value now sitting at $916,285. That figure is still 2.8% higher than last year and 13.9% ($147,480) lower than the market’s peak in late 2021.

Once again, Auckland lead the reductions with a 2.6% average home value decline this quarter – down from a 1.4% decrease in our previous index, and marking five straight months of negative growth. Tauranga (-1.3%), Palmerston North (-1.3%), and Wellington (-1.2%) experienced the next largest home value reductions on average this quarter.

Marlborough (0.9%) was the only main urban area we monitor where the average rate of home value growth increased this quarter. The rolling three-month average remained steady from index to index in Hastings (0.9%) and Queenstown (0.1%), and it either decreased, or the rate of decline increased, everywhere else.

QV operations manager James Wilson highlighted the relative strength of home values in the South Island, particularly around Invercargill (1%) and Dunedin (1.3%). “There are some pockets of modest growth, most notably in the South Island. However, that also appears to be waning now, with even Christchurch and Queenstown – two of our more ‘bullish’ housing markets in recent years – now experiencing little or no growth whatsoever,” he said.

“Tough economic conditions are continuing to make it extremely difficult for potential purchasers to save a sizeable deposit for a home, secure finance from the bank, and service a mortgage with interest rates currently sitting around 7% and on shore inflation still biting. Many house hunters are in hibernation now until conditions improve, potentially on the other side of winter, maybe longer.

“As a result, downward price pressure has spread across all segments of the market now, with investors, owner occupiers, and even first-home buyers – still the most active group in the market today – all taking a noticeable step back as we pass the halfway point of the year. An abundance of listings is also having a cooling effect on the market, reducing remaining competition and therefore flattening growth across much of the country.”

Meanwhile, Mr Wilson said sellers were having to be increasingly patient. “Many residential property sales are now conditional on other sales occurring. This has been causing chain reactions in many instances, which is often extending sales periods or causing deals to fall over altogether. Sellers are also having to adjust their price expectations in what has increasingly become a buyers’ market, albeit a pretty quiet one.”

Mr Wilson expected home values to soften further throughout the winter months ahead. “There’s currently nothing to suggest that house prices will take off again in the near future, while there’s everything to suggest that they will remain flat to gently falling. The recent shortening of the bright-line test will likely result in more listings coming onto the market, offering buyers even more choice and therefore keeping downward pressure on prices.”

“The recent introduction of debt-to-income restrictions and the loosening of loan-to-value ratios are not expected to have any material effect on the market in the short to medium term, particularly while interest rates remain at their current high level,” he added.

Northland

The average home value in Kaipara increased by 0.8% to $868,456 this quarter.

Otherwise values reduced by an average of 0.1% in the Far North and by 0.6% in Whangarei. The average home is now worth $726,177 in the former and $729,749 in the latter.

On an annualised basis, home values in the Far North are up 8.4% on average. They are also 1.6% higher on average in Kaipara and 1% lower in Whangarei over the 12 months to the end of June 2024.

Auckland

Auckland’s average home value has now reduced for a fifth month in a row.

Our latest QV House Price Index shows the average home value across Tāmaki Makaurau has decreased by 2.6% to $1,250,372 this quarter. It follows five consecutive month-to-month reductions: 0.4% in February, 0.2% in March, 0.1% in April, 1.1% in May, and now 1.4% in June.

Of the Super City’s seven former local government areas, the largest average home value reductions this quarter occurred in Manukau (-3.6%), Rodney (-3%) and Papakura (-2.7%). And as we pass the halfway point of 2024, only Franklin (1.9%) has a higher average home value than at the start of this calendar year.

“The Auckland housing market is pretty flat generally, which is fairly typical during the mid-winter months anyway,” said local QV registered valuer Hugh Robson.

“However, reports from local real estate agents have been quite mixed, with some struggling to sell and reporting little interest being shown at open homes and people hesitant to make offers. Others have reported a somewhat improving situation, but vendors and purchasers have to be realistic in order to reach a deal.”

“Homes in popular locations, such as inner city and coastal suburbs, are selling better than less desirable areas,” he added. “Otherwise there are still quite a few townhouse developments with unsold homes.”

Tauranga

The rate of home value decline has remained relatively steady in Tauranga this quarter.

The QV House Price Index for June 2024 shows the city’s average home value reduced by 1.3% to $1,027,306 this quarter – down from a three-month average rolling rate of 1% negative growth in our previous index.

The city’s average home value is now 0.8% lower on average than at the start of this calendar year, but still 2.9% higher than at the end of June last year.

Waikato

Home values have reduced on average in all bar three of Waikato’s local council areas this quarter.

Thames-Coromandel (0.7%), Waipa (0.1%) and Taupo (1.4%) all experienced a modest amount of home value growth during the three months to the end of June 2024, despite values edging down 0.2% on average across the wider region. The largest reductions occurred in South Waikato (-2.3%) and Matamata-Piako (-2.3%).

“The regional housing market is now exhibiting signs of decline, consistent with the typically quiet winter trading season,” said local QV property consultant Marshall Wu.

In Hamilton, the average home value decreased by 0.3% to $781,975, which is just a fraction of a percentage point off the 0.4% quarterly reduction recorded in our previous QV House Price index. Annually, that figure remains just 0.8% higher than the same time last year.

“Local real estate agents report that listing numbers remain relatively high, and many vendors appear to be adopting more realistic price expectations, often reducing their asking prices to gauge the market’s response. The housing market appears to be shifting in favour of buyers, particularly first-home buyers, as we enter the winter season,” Mr Wu said.

Taranaki

Residential property values have lessened across the Taranaki region this quarter at an average rate of 1.6%.

The largest reduction was in Stratford, where the average home value reduced by 5.1% to $479,919. South Taranaki wasn’t far behind; its average home value dropped 4.4% to $433,085.

In New Plymouth, home values reduced by a comparatively modest 0.8% on average. The city’s mean average home value is now precisely $715,681, which is now just 0.1% higher than at the end of June last year.

Hawke’s Bay

The Hawke’s Bay housing market has performed steadier than most this quarter.

Home values have increased in Napier at an average rate of 0.4% in the June quarter – a small reduction in the 1.2% growth recorded for the May quarter – while Hastings posted the same amount of growth this quarter as last at 0.9%.

The average home value in Napier is $760,738, which is 3.2% higher than at the end of June last year. In Hastings, that figure is $788,852, which is 3.1% higher than the same time last year.

Palmerston North

Home values have decreased for a third month in a row in Palmerston North.

The city’s average home value decreased 1.3% to $637,525 this quarter. That figure is 1.7% higher than at the end of June last year, but is also 0.8% lower than at the start of this calendar year.

Local QV registered valuer Olivia Betts commented: “Since June last year, the overall statistics have shown a relatively consistent pattern in Palmerston North, indicating a modest increase over the past 12 months. However, the housing market is exhibiting a notable divergence between different market segments.

“Properties with older, dated features are struggling to attract buyers. They are often sitting on the market for prolonged periods. In contrast, there has been a marked increase in interest for homes that have undergone recent modernisation, reflecting a growing preference for updated amenities and aesthetics among prospective buyers, as reported by industry agents.”

Meanwhile, she said concerns over affordability were persisting, with potential buyers having to contend with higher interest rates.

“Looking ahead, these rates are expected to remain elevated over the next six months, posing continued challenges for borrowers seeking to enter or move within the market. This economic backdrop underscores the complex dynamics influencing current housing trends, where property condition and financial accessibility play crucial roles in shaping buyer behaviour and market outcomes.”

Wellington

Wellington’s average home value has decreased slightly for the third month in a row.

Values reduced by an average of 1.2% in the June quarter, compared to a 0.3% quarterly deduction reported in our previous QV House Price Index. The mean average home value in the region is now $865,129, which is 4.8% higher than the same time last year and 20.8% ($227,836) lower than the market’s peak in late 2021.

Once again, Kapiti Coast has recorded the largest amount of positive growth on average this quarter – and is the only local council area to do so in this month’s index. Its average home value increased by 0.9% to $841,882.

Meanwhile, the average home value in Upper Hutt reduced by 2.2% to $757,416 this quarter, which is the largest average reduction this quarter. Porirua saw the smallest reduction on average this quarter, with its average home value reducing by 0.2% to $833,612.

Local QV senior consultant David Cornford commented: “Property values in the Wellington region declined again last month, which is due to under-pressure vendors being forced to accept lower prices in order to achieve a sale.

“There continues to be plenty of options for buyers due to the large number of properties on the market and a high number of motivated vendors. As such, it continues to be a buyers’ market. They’re continuing to take a cautious approach given the economic conditions, and generally, only those with strong job security are willing to take on additional debt presently. This is resulting in a relatively quiet property market.”

Nelson

Nelson’s housing market has cooled with the season.

The city’s average home value has shrunk by another 0.9% in the June quarter to reach $771,804. That figure is now 1% less than the same time last year, and 0.7% less than at the start of the 2024 calendar year.

QV Nelson/Marlborough manager Craig Russell commented: “Residential property values are relatively weak at the moment, reflecting a high interest rate environment, the increased cost of living, and a weak economy.”

“Listing numbers remain high within Nelson, but buyers are very cautious and completing significant due diligence. We’re seeing numerous price reductions, with some properties even being withdrawn from the market entirely until conditions improve,” he added.

West Coast

Home values slipped back 1% on average on the West Coast this quarter.

However, there was some growth in Grey District, where values increased 1.1% to a new average of $423,749.

Otherwise, the average home value in Buller reduced by 3.7% to $357,600 in the three months to the end of June 2024, with the average home value in Westland also reducing by 1.5% to $441,193.

Canterbury

There has been a noticeable seasonal shift in Canterbury’s cooling housing market, exacerbated by ongoing economic conditions.

The latest QV House Price Index shows home values have grown across the region by an average of 0.3% this quarter – less than the 1.4% growth recorded in the May quarter, but still above a national average decline of 0.9%.

Across the greater Canterbury region, just Timaru (-1.8%) and Waimate (-2%) posted average reductions in home value this quarter. Values increased by 5.4% in Ashburton, but otherwise only modest growth was recorded everywhere else.

In Christchurch, the average home value ($764,228) declined by 0.9% last month, reducing the Garden City’s quarterly average home value growth to zero. The surrounding districts of Waimakariri (0.3%) and Selwyn (0.7%) also recoded modest growth this quarter.

“The Canterbury region’s property market has slowed overall with a subdued month recorded, but that’s typical for this time of year,” said local QV senior consultant Olivia Brownie. “It’s no surprise to see growth slow once you hit the winter months, with less sales overall.”

“It’s a buyers’ market currently. That means there is ample opportunity for prospective purchasers to negotiate on price, with difficult economic factors also continuing to provide downward pressure on values,” she added.

Otago

Home value growth remains sluggish but still largely positive across the wider Otago region.

Once again, just Clutha saw a small decline this quarter, with its average home value reducing by 0.4% to $407,954. Otherwise the regional average was 0.7% growth for the three months to the end of June 2024 – down slightly on the 1% growth recorded for the three months to the end of May 2024.

In Dunedin, the average home value increased by 1.3% to $643,554 this quarter. That figure is 4.8% higher than the same time last year and 2.6% higher than at the start of this calendar year.

QV registered valuer Rebecca Johnston said there had been a noticeable drop-off in open home attendance. “The relatively large number of properties available for sale on the market today is keeping the ball firmly in buyer’s courts – though economic conditions remain rather difficult for most.”

She said a subdivision that recently opened up in greenfield land had achieved good sales so far. “Otherwise demand for vacant land continues to remain average in the medium term, restricted further by many lenders requiring fixed-price build contracts. Developers are now beginning to build on land, selling ‘house and land’ packages to shift the risk away from buyers and lenders.”

Queenstown

Queenstown’s average rate of home value growth has remained flat.

The average home value has increased by just 0.1% locally to $1,828,344 in in the June quarter – the same rate of growth as in the three months to the end of May, but trending downward from 2.7% and 1.1% growth in the three months to the end of March and April respectively.

The average home value is now 6.9% higher than at the end of June last year and 2.8% higher than at the start of 2024.

Invercargill

The average home value in Invercargill increased by just 1% this quarter – but that was enough to outperform almost every other main centre in this month’s QV House Price Index.

The average home value in Aotearoa’s southernmost city is now $485,551, which is 7.1% higher than the same time last year.

However, its rolling three-month average rate of growth has reduced from 3.2% in both April and May.

Local QV registered valuer Andrew Ronald commented: “Market conditions are flat across all price brackets. There is still steady demand from first-home buyers, and investors are beginning to return to the market with the restoration of interest tax deductibility rules. However, continued high interest rates appear to be limiting price growth.”

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