NZ Economy: Flicker Of Light

The BusinessNZ Planning Forecast for the September Quarter shows a flicker of light at the end of the tunnel.

The BusinessNZ Economic Conditions Index, a measure of New Zealand’s major economic indicators, shows improvement from the previous quarter, with warmer business and consumer sentiment, reducing inflation, declining interest rates, small improvements in the health of the manufacturing and services sectors, and improved international prices for NZ dairy products among the positives.

BusinessNZ Director of Advocacy Catherine Beard says there are a number of indicators that suggest we are close to, or possibly past, the worst of the economic downturn.

"However, improvements are largely forecast to be incremental at this stage," Catherine Beard said.

"Some sectors are still doing it tough. Construction activity is low, and the retail and hospitality sectors are trying to keep their heads above water as demand remains flat and households keep their wallets shut.

"New Zealand still faces significant challenges at the national level, including rising Government debt, difficulties funding future health and superannuation investment, and regulatory policy challenges.

"Economic growth is forecast to improve incrementally - but off a very low base - over the forecast period out to September 2026."

The BusinessNZ Economic Conditions Index sits at 8 for the September 2024 quarter, up 13 on the previous quarter and up 30 on a year ago. The index is a measure of New Zealand’s major economic indicators including GDP, export volumes, commodity prices, inflation, debt, and business and consumer confidence.

The BusinessNZ Planning Forecast is on www.businessnz.org.nz

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