Spring Trend Or Market Rebound? House Prices Bounce Back In September

Ahead of this week’s OCR and following five months of back-to-back declines, property prices have rebounded in September, according to Trade Me’s latest Property Price index.

The national average asking price for a property in September was $823,550, up 0.6 per cent from August and the first time since March prices have seen a month-on-month increase.

The West Coast (+3.1% MoM), Northland (+2% MoM) and Bay of Plenty (1.9% MoM) saw the largest increases across the 15 regions Trade Me Property monitors.

Auckland, which saw house prices drop below the one million dollar mark in August for the first time in four years, bounced back from $986,750 to $996,350 in September.

“While 0.6 per cent isn’t a big number it is significant to see positive growth in prices at this point in the year. It suggests that while we’ve endured a challenging winter period, there’s renewed optimism in the housing market,” says Trade Me Property Customer Director Gavin Lloyd.

“It will be interesting to see what happens with this week’s OCR announcement and whether the trends we are seeing continue over the next month and into Summer.”

The four regions bucking the trend

Eleven of the 15 regions Trade Me Property monitors recorded an increase in the average asking price in September up from just five in August.

Those regions which saw a drop were led by Nelson/Tasman which saw prices fall -2.3 per cent to $793,850, Taranaki down -2.2 per cent to $631,550, Gisborne -1.4 per cent to $614,600 and Southland down -1.2 per cent to $491,600.

Record highs for 1-2 bedroom properties in the Garden City

Looking at the major urban centres, property prices for one to two bedroom properties in Christchurch city reached a record high of $549,050 in September, up 3.4 per cent on the same time last year. Ōtautahi also saw an increase in the average asking price for units up 6.1 per cent year-on-year to $471,150.

“It’s interesting to contrast what we are seeing with five or more bedroom properties in both Auckland and Wellington. While Auckland shows strong growth in average asking prices for larger homes up 7.2 per cent year-on-year, it’s the opposite in Wellington where prices are down 17.5 percent for properties of the same size.

“There’s also a substantial price difference between those larger properties - in Auckland the average asking price for a five plus bedroom house is close to a million dollars more than for a similar sized property in Wellington,” says Mr Lloyd.

Supply up while demand cools slightly

The nation’s housing supply remains strong, up 23 per cent year-on-year and 1.0 per cent on August.

Gisborne recorded the biggest increase in the number of properties available compared to September 2023, up a significant 64 per cent, with Wellington (+44%) and Otago (+35%) also showing plenty of supply.

Interest in properties on the market cooled slightly between August and September (-2.0%) but remains 17 per cent higher than the same time last year. This year-on-year demand has spiked in Gisborne (+35%), Auckland (+24%) and Hawke’s Bay (+22%).

Note:

About the Trade Me Property Price Index:

• The Trade Me Property Price Index measures trends in the expectations of selling prices for residential property listings added to Trade Me Property by real estate agents and private sellers over the past three months.
• It provides buyers, sellers and realtors with insights into ‘for sale’ price trends by property type and property size.
• The Index is produced from data on properties listed on Trade Me Property in the three months leading up to the last day of each period. Each period’s value is a truncated mean of the complete three months’ worth of listings. This is to better reflect trends in property prices rather than month-to-month fluctuations in housing stock.
• The Index uses an “80 per cent truncated mean” of the expected sale price to calculate the average asking price. This excludes the upper and lower 10 per cent of listings by price, and averages the expected sale prices of the remaining properties.
• It provides an insight into ‘for sale’ price trends by type and size of property. Other reports aggregate property price data across these various properties. 
• Some of the numbers in this release have been rounded

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