Optimism Rises In Housing Market, Yet Stock At Decade-high Shows Sales Yet To Gain Momentum

• Highest October stock levels in a decade, up 26.3% year-on-year
• 22 months of price stability offers rare certainty for buyers and sellers

The recent OCR cut and easing interest rates appeared to mark a turning point for the New Zealand property market, sparking renewed interest among buyers. Following last month’s OCR drop, buyer enquiries surged, signalling confidence from Kiwis actively looking for new homes. 

Yet, high stock levels suggest cautious optimism from buyers prevails. In October, stock levels hit an unusual peak, with over 32,000 properties available nationwide—a 26.3% increase year-on-year and a 7.7% rise from September.

Sarah Wood, CEO of realestate.co.nz, noted that while optimism is creeping back, factors like interest rates and job security are tempering purchase behaviour: 

“While buyer activity is climbing, economic factors are keeping some would-be buyers on the sidelines.”

October’s housing stock reaches 10-year high: 32,000 homes now on offer

National stock levels were the highest recorded for a month of October in almost a decade. While higher stock levels in October are typical as the spring selling season ramps up, these levels reflect trends we haven’t seen since 2014 and 2015. 

“Buyers had more to choose from last month than they’ve had during an October for nearly a decade,” said Wood. 

All regions saw positive stock growth both month-on-month and year-on-year, with the majority showing double-digit annual increases. The biggest year-on-year increases in stock were in Gisborne (up 81.2%) and Wellington (up 52.9%). Only Northland, Taranaki, Nelson, and Southland recorded single-digit growth. 

According to Wood, early signs of market movement are beginning to show even if stock isn’t selling through yet: 

“We can see buyer sentiment changing with the amount of time properties are staying on the site. Properties listed for less than 30 days increased from 23.9% in September to 27.9% in October meaning that stock is moving faster, and interest is warming up.”

Nearly two years of stable prices offer buyers rare predictability

The abundance of stock, along with stable asking prices, is creating favourable conditions for those in a position to buy. 

For 22 months, the national average asking price has remained steady, fluctuating only between $850,000 and $890,000, providing rare market predictability. At $856,981, our national average asking price was down 3.0% year-on-year and 1.5% month-on-month during October. 

The absence of significant price fluctuations also extended around the country, with most regions seeing changes of less than 10% in their average asking price compared to 2023. 

Otago, Southland, and the West Coast were the only regions to see both month-on-month and year-on-year growth in asking prices. At the other end of the spectrum, Auckland, Bay of Plenty, Central North Island, Hawke’s Bay, Northland, Waikato, and Wairarapa all saw declines over both timeframes.

The West Coast saw the biggest year-on-year increase to its average asking price, up 14.3%, while Wairarapa recorded the steepest decline, down 12.1% compared to last year. “Both are smaller markets and tend to be more prone to fluctuation,” noted Wood.

Wood added: “The overall price stability is a positive sign for both buyers and sellers, offering a steady environment for those entering or moving within the market.”

“Of course, individual circumstances and interest rates continue to shape buyer and seller decisions.”

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