Gas Scenarios Cold Comfort To Energy Users

The Gas Industry Company (GIC) 2024 Gas Supply and Demand Study provides cold comfort to New Zealand businesses and households struggling with high energy costs.

Energy Resources Aotearoa Chief Executive John Carnegie says the data shows what Kiwis already know - New Zealand faces a natural gas shortage that risks blackouts and threatens the competitiveness of our exporters.

The government hopes that repealing the oil and gas exploration ban will reinvigorate development of a secure natural gas supply, but the changes to the Crown Minerals Act are unlikely to go far enough.

Carnegie says the 2018 exploration ban had a chilling effect on investment in New Zealand’s petroleum sector, and those effects continue to ripple through the economy.

For some, legislation or other changes will be too little, too late.

"Large energy users continue to announce plans to partially shutter production in the face of sustained losses triggered by high input costs, including energy. Sadly, there may be more to come.

Deindustrialisation is not the pathway to a vibrant, prosperous economy that benefits all Kiwis."

Carnegie says the sector has long recognised the importance of the energy trilemma as a framework for understanding policy trade-offs in our energy systems.

"Energy is the lifeblood of our economy, so understanding the trade-offs between cost, security, and sustainability is important. When you prioritise sustainability over affordability and security, you get the challenges we now face."

LNG imports or the continued import of coal are options, but domestic natural gas is likely cheaper and environmentally friendlier.

"The last government found that it was easier to ban than build, and ordinary Kiwis now pay the price for their political hubris.

The energy sector is now on life support. We need policies to ensure natural gas will continue to be an essential part of our future prosperity." Carnegie says.

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