Employment Confidence Falls As Jobs Remain Hard To Find

The Westpac-McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index fell by 3.3 points to 88.3 in the March quarter. This is the lowest reading for the Index since September 2020, in the wake of the first Covid-19 lockdown.

“Perceptions about the availability of jobs were down across most regions,” said Michael Gordon, Senior Economist at Westpac. “This measure had picked up a little in the December quarter, but has since given back those gains.”

“While job availability remains soft, this measure is still broadly in line with the current unemployment rate of 5.1%. This supports our view that the rate of unemployment rate is nearing its peak for this cycle.”

“The survey results for the March quarter differed substantially across the country, with only four out of eleven regions recording a fall in confidence,” noted Mr Gordon. “However, one of these four was Auckland, which dominated the national average.”

Much of the difference across regions was driven by earnings growth, which was generally weaker in the main centres but rose strongly in some of the more farming-intensive regions. “A record high farmgate milk price for this season, and improving export prices for beef and lamb, are providing a boost to incomes in these regions,” said Mr Gordon.

“Confidence amongst employees working in both the public and private sectors remains subdued this quarter,” noted Imogen Rendall, Market Research Director of McDermott Miller Limited. “For employees in the private sector, confidence has dropped 4.7 points down to 87.9 (a drop of 20.8 points from this time last year) and for those working in the public sector, confidence has picked up slightly by 1.4 points rising to 89.2 (but still down 16.5 points from a year ago).”

“Both private and public sector employees have taken a particularly pessimistic view on the current availability of jobs, with around six in ten saying that jobs are currently hard to get,” observed Ms Rendall.

The survey was conducted over 1-12 March 2025, with a sample size of 1,550. An index number over 100 indicates that optimists outnumber pessimists. The margin of error of the survey is 2.5%.

Note:

The Westpac-McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index is owned by McDermott Miller Limited. Westpac-McDermott Miller should be acknowledged as the source when citing the Employment Confidence Survey and Index. Graphs supplied may be reproduced by the news media provided Westpac-McDermott Miller is acknowledged as the source.

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