Australian Election Newsletter #3

IPREDICT LTD

Australian Election Newsletter #3:

13 July 2012

https://www.iPredict.co.nz

https://www.twitter.com/iPredictNZ

https://www.facebook.com/iPredictNZ

Key Points:

• 83% probability of Liberal Prime Minister

• Federal election still expected in Q1 2013

• Growth of 0-0.5% expected in next three quarters and unemployment to be 5-5.5% through to September 2012

• Coalition now expected to win Lingiari (NT) off Labor

• No further changes to the Australian cash rate expected before December 2013

• Abbott safe as Liberal leader against Turnbull, while Gillard only has a 33% probability of being Labor leader on nomination day

• Coalition to beat Labor 52% to 48% on two-party preferred basis and win 86 seats in House, including Blair (Qld) and Richmond (NSW)

• New contracts available today forecasting results are Adelaide, Batman, Blaxland, Brisbane, Dunkley, Goldstein, Gorton, Higgins, Hinkler, Lalor, Mallee, Maranoa, McPherson, Murray, Reid, Wakefield, and Wright

Introduction

This is the third newsletter summarising forecasts by the 7100 registered traders on New Zealand’s online predictions market, iPredict, of the results of the next Australian Federal Election. Anyone else wanting to trade can do so by signing up for free at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=register.

The newsletter will be produced periodically, with greater frequency as we move closer to the election, which must be held by 30 November 2013.

Each newsletter will provide a snapshot of market forecasts, taken at a random time to avoid manipulation by political parties and activists. Today’s was taken at 12.50 pm (New Zealand Time).

In addition, bundles of contracts for races in different electoral divisions will be launched before each newsletter. The seventeen launched today are, Adelaide, Batman, Blaxland, Brisbane, Dunkley, Goldstein, Gorton, Higgins, Hinkler, Lalor, Mallee, Maranoa, McPherson, Murray, Reid, Wakefield, and Wright. These can be traded at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=318.

Election Date

There continues to be no precise consensus among iPredict’s 7100 traders of when the next Australian Federal Election will be held.

There is a 30% probability it will be held in Q2 2013, a 26% probability it will be held in Q1 2013, a 19% probability it will be held in Q4 2012 and a 12% probability it will be held in Q3 2013.

When all prices are analysed, the best estimate is an election in Q1 2013.

Economic Context

Between now and the forecast election, iPredict traders expect the Australian economy to grow by between 0-0.5% in each of the June 2012, September 2012, and December 2012 quarters.

The unemployment rate is expected to lie between 5.0-5.5% through to September while inflation is expected to be between 1-2% in the June quarter, 1-2% in the September quarter and 2-3% in the December quarter.

There are no expectations that the Australian Reserve Bank will change the cash rate by 3 December 2013.

Party Leaders

There is only a 33% probability that Prime Minister Julia Gillard will be leader of the Australian Labor Party (ALP) on nomination day for the next Federal Election, suggesting a 67% probability she will be deposed before then. There is a 57% probability that she will depart as ALP leader before 1 March 2013.

Former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd remains the clear front-runner to replace her, with a 27% probability he will be ALP leader on nomination day, although this is down from 39% last month. Other contenders are Employment and Workplace Relations Minister Bill Shorten (18% probability, up from 16%) and Defence Minister Stephen Smith (15% probability, up from 13%).

Risks to Opposition Leader Tony Abbott are far less acute. The market indicates an 82% probability he will be leader of the Liberal Party on nomination day (steady from last month) and an 18% probability the leader will be former leader Malcolm Turnbull (steady on last month)

Forecast Outcome

There have been no changes in forecast first preference votes over the last month. The ALP continues to be expected to win 37% of first preferences and the Green Party 12%. The Liberal Party continues to be expected to win 31% of first preferences, the Liberal National Party of Queensland 10% and the Australian National Party 9%.

On a two-party preferred basis, the Liberal/National Coalition continues to be expected to win 52% of the vote and the ALP 48%.

The Coalition has a 53% probability of picking up Blair (Qld) from ALP incumbent Shayne Neumann, a 60% probability of taking Richmond (NSW) from ALP incumbent Justine Elliot and a 62% probability of taking Lingiari (NT) from incumbent ALP MP Warren Snowdon. It will also retain Boothby (SA) (69% probability) Cowan (WA) (75% probability) and Hasluck (WA) (71% probability).

The ALP’s Anna Burke has a 55% probability of holding Chisholm (Vic). The ALP also has an 80% chance of retaining Bass (Tas), and a 69% chance of retaining Franklin (Tas). Despite ongoing political turmoil there is still a 53% chance that Labor will win Dobell (NSW), with or without incumbent Labor MP Craig Thomson.

Across the commonwealth, the market currently expects the following House of Representatives: ALP 56 seats, Liberals 50 seats, Liberal National Party of Queensland 19 seats, National Party 15 seats, Katter’s Australian Party 3 seats, the Greens 1 seat, the Northern Territory Country Liberal Party 1 seat and the National Party of Western Australia 1 seat. In addition, two of Tony Windsor, Rob Oakeshott, Andrew Wilkie, Peter Slipper and Craig Thomson are expected to retain their seats and two other MPs are expected to be elected either as independents or for parties not named above.

The Liberal/National Coalition would therefore have a clear majority of 86 seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives.

Overall, the market believes there is an 83% probability there will be a Liberal Prime Minister after the next election (up from 82% last month) and a 17% probability there will be an ALP Prime Minister (down from 18% last month).

Miscellaneous

iPredict is owned by Victoria University of Wellington and operates under New Zealand law under the Futures Contracts (iPredict Limited) Declaration and Exemption Notice 2008. iPredict traders warrant and undertake that they are 18 years of age or older and will comply will all laws in the jurisdictions in which they are present.

ENDS

© Scoop Media