A Scientist’s Account Of New Zealand’s Pandemic And What Comes Next

When Covid-19 arrived in New Zealand in March 2020, panic buying began and the future was deeply uncertain. Three years later, the country recorded one of the world’s lowest pandemic death rates – despite lighter restrictions on average than most OECD nations. Had it followed the path of the US or UK, more than 17,000 lives might have been lost. This new book asks: How was such an outcome possible – and at what cost?

In The Covid Response, physicist and science communicator Shaun Hendy offers a personal, behind-the-scenes account of how science shaped New Zealand’s pandemic strategy. As part of the Te Pūnaha Matatini team, he helped inform the government’s response – modelling the virus’s spread, assessing risk and supporting decision-makers under pressure. Hendy guides readers through pivotal moments, unpacking the science behind key decisions and the challenges of navigating a fast-moving, uncertain crisis.

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‘In the middle of the crisis, our job as scientists wasn’t just to run the numbers – it was to make sense of uncertainty. It was a responsibility none of us took lightly,’ Hendy explains. ‘Science helped save lives, but it also taught us how much we still have to learn about preparing for the next big threat.’

The Covid Response explains the tools of pandemic science, from modelling to genomic sequencing, and refl ects on the complex relationship between science and policy. Hendy also looks to the future, asking how we can be better prepared next time. ‘

The vast majority of us made sacrifi ces to keep our people safe.’ Hendy writes, ‘If there is one thing that I would hope for in the next pandemic, it is that we can recapture some of the spirit that got us through those years, while striving to ensure that the costs and benefi ts are shared more equitably next time. And if there is one lesson we should take from Covid-19, it is that a resilient society must be an equitable one.’

As the world monitors the spread of avian influenza (H5N1), Hendy warns that our readiness may already be compromised – notably in the United States, where the Trump administration has withdrawn from the World Health Organization and weakened key public health institutions. In Aotearoa, much of the capability built during the pandemic is at risk of fading. Hendy calls for renewed investment in science and stronger regional partnerships, especially with Australia, to ensure we are ready for whatever comes next.

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