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Changes to school deciles
Changes to school deciles
It was reported today on Radio NZ that that the numbers attending decile 1 schools have increased, and the numbers in decile ten schools have fallen dramatically, as a result of the decile recalculation exercise undertaken in 2015.
This is correct, but is not the whole story. Decile 1 schools have grown by around 8000 students in the decile reshuffle, and decile 2 schools have reduced by about the same number. Both deciles are firmly within the poverty shadow of over 200,000 children living in poverty.
Around 7,000 students that were in decile 2 schools are now in decile 1 schools. Most of the students in these schools are Maori and Pasifika. Some of the schools that dropped a decile were relatively large – Manurewa High, Papakura High, Fairburn and Cosgrove.
Taking the two deciles together, there is little change in composition. Figures on ethnicity are not yet known.
At the other end, the report notes a drop of around 20,000 students in decile 10 schools. That there is a big change at the top end should not be surprising – the schools are around 2.5 times larger than low decile schools after 20 years of parents choosing ‘up’ for their children.
The pattern of choice is interesting, particularly in Auckland. A number of large high schools have remained within decile 10, especially in the north of the city – Rangitoto College, Takapuna College, Long Bay High and Albany High. However a number of others, especially in the Howick and central areas, have dropped a decile from 10 to 9: Macleans College (roll 2258), Auckland Grammar (2450), Botany Downs secondary (1700) and so on. The combined roll of six schools that dropped from 10 to 9 is over 10,000, explaining at least half of the shift.
It is not clear what has caused the changing pattern in Auckland schools. Various explanations could be the influence of house prices (families with school aged children are finding it harder to find homes near big Auckland schools), and immigration (immigrants working harder to get their children into high decile schools) are the two most likely explanations from the international literature.
But, while the numbers are big, the shift is not particularly significant in terms of overall patterns. The attached table shows that there are big deprivation gaps between schools.
I am meeting with the Ministry at lunchtime today to get a better briefing on some of the questions this new data raises.
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| 2015 Decile | No. of schools | Lowest 20% income | Crowded Households (%) | Parents without Qualifications (%) | Parents Received Income Support (%) | Parents in skill-levels 4 & 5 of the ANZSCO (%) |
| 1 | 237 | 41.70% | 52.40% | 35.40% | 33.30% | 59.90% |
| 2 | 237 | 33.50% | 34.80% | 29.20% | 26.90% | 51.70% |
| 3 | 237 | 29.30% | 28.30% | 24.30% | 22.70% | 46.50% |
| 4 | 239 | 26.50% | 22.40% | 20.90% | 19.00% | 41.90% |
| 5 | 243 | 22.10% | 17.40% | 18.60% | 16.00% | 39.10% |
| 6 | 234 | 20.50% | 15.40% | 16.60% | 13.60% | 37.50% |
| 7 | 237 | 17.80% | 14.10% | 13.70% | 11.60% | 33.60% |
| 8 | 236 | 15.40% | 12.80% | 11.60% | 9.30% | 30.90% |
| 9 | 237 | 13.60% | 12.00% | 9.10% | 7.10% | 27.90% |
| 10 | 235 | 9.90% | 9.40% | 5.70% | 4.50% | 22.30% |
| All | 2372 | 19.60% | 16.50% | 16.00% | 12.90% | 36.50% |
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