Diabetes Epidemic Intensifies

MEDIA RELEASE
5 May 2007

Diabetes Epidemic Intensifies

Diabetes New Zealand is predicting that the cost of the type 2 diabetes epidemic to the health sector will reach $1.6 billion a year by 2021 which will consume an estimated 15% of Vote Health. Currently Type 2 diabetes accounts for 3% of Vote Health.

The cause of this increased expenditure will be the requirement for treatment of people with diabetes-related complications such as amputation, heart and renal disease, stroke and blindness which, because of the acute nature of these complications, will divert money away from treatments for other diseases.

“If our predictions come to pass, and there is a high risk they will, the severe impact will not only be on the suffering of thousands of people with severe diabetes complications, but the impact will be across the whole health system as funds are dragged from other areas of need to stem the demands of diabetes. It is a serious situation,” says Murray Dear, president of Diabetes New Zealand.

These predictions arise from a study commissioned by Diabetes New Zealand and carried out by PricewaterhouseCoopers modeled on an earlier study on Type 2 diabetes undertaken in 2001: “Type 2 diabetes: Managing for Better Health Outcomes”.

The study notes that actual prevalence of diabetes in 2006 is 19% higher than the Ministry of Health predicted it would be back in 2001. The Ministry of Health released revised figures recently acknowledging the increased incidence. This study uses these figures as a base and models outcomes over 15 years and this is how it arrives at these alarming conclusions.

“We have seen this trend gathering momentum for some years now. This is why we commissioned the study in 2001 and updated it again recently, for five years on.

“In 2001 we proposed investment in preventive strategies to attempt to slow or even reverse the trend. It would have involved the investment of $60 million a year over 20 years in prevention, self-management and early detection services. The study demonstrates that if this had been initiated in 2001 the financial saving alone by 2021 would have been $320 million a year, not to mention the reduction in human suffering.

“Based on 2006 figures the level of potential savings has increased to $370 million but this is likely to reduce progressively if the initial investment is not made. This is because there are more people with the potential of complications moving through the cycle to the point of developing serious complications. We have a window of opportunity if we take action now. That window will close the longer we leave it,” says Mr Dear.

“Whilst we acknowledge that there is some good work being done in the health sector on detecting and treating diabetes, it is nowhere near keeping pace with the gathering epidemic. The huge bulk of these people have yet to hit the hospital system which is when the high cost of treatment will begin to take effect.

“A vigorous and nationally co-ordinated prevention programme is required of a scale sufficient to address this sinister epidemic and so far there has not been the political will to address the problem at the level required.”

Diabetes New Zealand is also concerned about the inadequate level of data available to track this epidemic.

We need to have more accurate tracking and assessment of the progress of this disease. Because it can have long periods of relative dormancy we could literally wake up one morning to find that we have a major problem on our hands and that’s a very likely scenario says Mr Dear.

Ends

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