Supercomputer Weather: Frances Heads For Florida

Hurricane Frances, a category 5 hurricane, is forecast to hit the Florida Coast on Saturday EST (Sunday NZT). The latest forecast track has the hurricane making landfall close to the heavily populated Daytona Beach and heading over Orlando, one of Florida's largest urban areas.

If the hurricane does hit - which looks almost certain at this stage - it will be the second large hurricane to hit the state in the space of a month. Hurricane Charley hit Punta Gorda on August 13th killing at least 19 people and causing several billion dollars of damage.

In This Edition:
- Images Of Hurricane Frances
- The Latest Forecast Advisory
- A Supercomputer Forecast Of Wind And Rainfall On Landfall

http://img.scoop.co.nz/stories/images/0409/9b0413ff125f55415734.jpeg
Hurricane Frances Near Puerto Rico
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http://img.scoop.co.nz/stories/images/0409/49aa2c81577964cc6bbf.jpeg
The Eye Of Hurricane Frances
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Click for big version

000
WTNT31 KNHC 010245
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2004

...SEVERE HURRICANE FRANCES HEADING TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
WHICH INCLUDES ACKLINS...CROOKED...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA AND
RAGGED ISLANDS...AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHICH
INCLUDES CAT...EXUMAS...LONG ISLANDS...RUM CAY AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THE NORTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA GORDA WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO BAY.

FRANCES CONTINUES TO BE TRACKED WITH RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...
SATELLITE IMAGES...AND DOPPLER RADAR FROM PUERTO RICO. AT 11 PM
AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.0 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES...
430 KM...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...
26 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL
BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES FRANCES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. WHILE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FRANCES COULD STILL INTENSIFY A
LITTLE MORE BEFORE REACHING THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT...AND OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC ON WEDNESDAY.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...20.8 N... 67.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

************

A Supercomputer Forecast Of Wind And Rainfall On Landfall
Each image shows rainfall in coloured bands each indicating 5mm rain over a six hour period.

+78 Hours

+90 Hours

+102 Hours

+114 Hours

+120 Hours (Landfall – Direct Hit Daytona Beach)

+126 Hours (Over Orlando)

+132 Hours

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