Transtasman Political Letter – 15 Sept. Digest

Trans Tasman -- 15th September 2005

Will it be time for a change? ... Has National’s tax package been decisive? ... Or will Helen Clark’s leadership and her targeted policies prevail even with the last minute student loan costing debacle? ... There’s a mood for change, but it’s not as strong as in other watershed years like 1990 or 1999 ... This campaign has had as many twists and turns as any TV soap - and it’s not over ... Watch for blood on the floor in the aftermath.

Polls In a Frenzy As The Real Poll Looms

The polls have been “in a frenzy,” says Helen Clark. Maybe reading the tea-leaves would be more scientific. The trends, so far as they could be interpreted, have zig-zagged.

Brash Lifts National - But Exposes His Own Shortcomings

Don Brash hit speed wobbles several times in the campaign, but his ratings continue to climb. His willingness to apologise if he had mislead NZers over the Exclusive Brethren pamphlets painted a contrast with other politicians, and, as one of his advisers said, “shows he doesn’t bullshit.”

Classic Left-Right Divide Leaves No Room For Minnows

For the educated voter, 2005 has been the most fascinating election campaign in decades. The parties have brought sophisticated techniques to their campaigns.

Ideology Forces Political Direction Change

The verdict delivered at Saturday’s poll promises a distinctive switch in political direction whichever grouping holds the Treasury benches. A Labour-Greens Coalition will be more inclined to the left and be environmentally driven. A National-United Coalition or National governing alone will be centrist and more keenly attuned to market dynamics.

CAPITAL TALK

Michael Cullen, with his reputation for fiscal rectitude already hanging by a thread, coughed up another blue with his student loan costing. Treasury, forced to reveal their calculations, produced figures very close to those of market economists who were earlier rubbished by Govt Ministers.

PLAY OF THE WEEK - Questions…

Who has the more accurate poll? Our instinct is to say it will turn out to be Centrebet. There’s nothing like asking people to put their money down to focus the mind and to forgo wishful thinking.

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