Molesworth & Featherston (Weekend) – 29 Oct. 2005

Direct Link To This Week's Weekend Update Edition:
http://molesworthandfeatherston.info/pdf/MandF29Oct05L.pdf

Rolling average poll

That ol’ mole poll is back

With Prime Minister Helen Clark in Papua New Guinea for the Pacific Island Forum till Friday it’s been a relatively quiet week inside the Government as ministers settle into their new offices, and minor parties shuffle around inside the Bowen house high rise to take account of their shrinking size or – in the case of the Maori party – their new-found status.

Take the first few weeks with as many grains of salt as you like, but here is our exclusive rolling poll of polls starting afresh with the results of the election.

(We say farewell, too, to those imitators who came and went and seemed to think they were God’s gift to the polling industry and the only ones who weighted their polls. Wrong. See you in three years chaps.)

Our first sets of data are very thin, but as Dame Edna might say they spookily show Labour and National absolutely levelpegging. So the numbers are (and we will introduce some more minor parties as the data gets more reliable):

It’s a 122 MP Parliament with a two seat Maori party overhang, so 62 seats make a majority. We would note that the current Government set-up would not command a majority.

TAX AND WAGES

As the Government writes the Speech from the Throne outlining its policy programme, there are issues for business to watch for. Page 3.

INTEREST RATES UP

The Reserve Bank Governor had little choice, even though there is a case for holding or even reducing interest rates. But the real test will be whether rates increase again in December. Page 4.

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