INSS Insight: Jordanian-Palestinian Confederation

According to some observers, the phoenix of Jordanian-Palestinian confederation seems to have risen from the ashes. Discussion of this issue has revived following the crisis in the Palestinian Authority which peaked with the violent takeover of the Gaza Strip by Hamas. That crisis has deepened the Israeli-Palestinian impasse because it manifested the Palestinians’ inability to advance toward a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and aroused some nostalgia for the days before the Palestinian national movement moved to center-stage, when the fate of the Palestinians was determined by Arab states, especially Egypt and Jordan. At first, the feeling took the form of proposals, especially by Israelis, that Egypt and Jordan send forces to restore order in Gaza and the West Bank and create the conditions for political progress. More recently, it has been expressed in the idea of confederation.

The idea of confederation was first raised in 1972 and resurfaced several times in the years since King Hussein decided in 1988 to sever links with the West Bank and recognize the PLO as the body responsible for the population there. The Jordanians never rejected the idea outright but did always stress that confederation can come about only if the Palestinians want it and that it can therefore be discussed only after an independent Palestinian state has come into being. Now, however, confederation is being considered from the outset as an alternative to a Palestinian state.

This version of the idea appears to have gathered momentum because of the conjuncture of two developments stemming from the Palestinian crisis. One is growing Jordanian concern at the possibility that the crisis will spill over into Jordan, in the form of a stream of Palestinian refugees. Those refugees would join the huge number of refugees from Iraq entering Jordan in recent years. They are already placing a strain on Jordanian infrastructure, but they do not constitute a truly heavy burden because Jordan has taken plains to allow only Sunnis with means to enter. From the regime’s point of view, Palestinian refugees would be a more serious problem because they would lack their own resources and would threaten to upset the delicate demographic balance between East Bank Jordanians and those of Palestinian origin.

Jordanian concerns have provoked public debate about the ramifications of the Palestinian crisis that has reverberated in Jordanian media. Former Prime Minister, Abd as-Salam Majali, has played a central role in this debate by proposing confederation as a way to bypass the crisis and move toward a solution. At a certain point, the impression emerged that the entire debate was actually initiated by the Hashemite regime, for which Majali was the messenger. In any case, the debate has also found echoes in the Israeli and American media. The high point was reached when an Internet site published a report, entirely without foundation, to the effect that Majali visited Israel as King Abdullah’s emissary in order to present to Prime Minister Ehud Olmert a Jordanian peace plan based on the reunification of the West Bank with Jordan.

The second development is growing enthusiasm in the Palestinian population of the West Bank for greater Jordanian involvement, which is reflected in various public opinion polls. For example, the poll by the Ramallah-based PCPSR in June showed 42% in favor of confederation with Jordan now or after the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. A similar number supported the dismantling of the Palestinian Authority. Support for the idea that Jordan should transfer to the West Bank the Badr Brigade of the Palestinian Liberation Army in order to strengthen the Fatah-controlled government also reinforced the perception of Palestinian endorsement of greater Jordanian involvement, since the Badr Brigade is essentially part of the Jordanian Army.

However, the bubble burst when King Abdullah gave interviews to Jordanian newspapers in early July in which he focused on the Palestinian issue and attacked with unprecedented severity the idea of confederation. Referring to what he called “American and Israeli pressure on Jordan to retake responsibility for the West Bank,” Abdullah said: “I’m fed up with talk about this issue … Our position is clear and well-known … We reject the idea of confederation or federation. Any such proposal at this time is a conspiracy against both Palestine and Jordan… Only after there is a Palestinian state on Palestinian soil can Jordanians and Palestinians decide on the nature of relations between them.” In short, it is clear that the “Jordanian solution” to the problem of the territories, which was buried in 1988, has not been resurrected.

Jordan’s primary objective is to preserve the integrity of the state and the regime in a situation in which it is surrounded by stronger states and, more recently, by chronic crises (Iraq and the PA) that threaten to export problems to Jordan. Jordan relates to the West Bank, not as territory lost in 1967 that should be regained, but rather as an area that projects permanent threats to Jordan’s existence, especially the threat to the demographic balance and the idea, popular on the Israeli right, that Jordan is Palestine. Reunification of the two banks in current circumstances would mean that Jordan would lose the separate character and independent identity it has managed to formulate and would be transformed into a Palestinian state. That explains the King’s acerbic comments. But he also fears that the Israel and the United States are unwilling to do what is necessary in order to promote a settlement of the Palestinian problem and want to throw the ball into Jordan’s court.

From Israel’s perspective, all this means that there is no reason to expect greater Jordanian involvement beyond the known parameters of assistance and training and equipping Mahmoud Abbas’ forces and agreeing to transfer the Badr Brigade to the West Bank. In Jordanian eyes, the movement of Palestinians from Jordan to the West Bank rather than the other way around is a welcome change.

INSS Insight is published
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