Right & Left Wing Election Models Agree on Winner

Thursday, 23 October 2008, 9:14 pm
Column: Michael Collins

Right & Left Wing Election Models Agree on Winner

Obama 364 - McCain 171 Electoral Votes
The latest from the "Votemaster" 10/21 Image: Votemaster

Votemaster, TruthIsAll, & Election * Projection Call it for Obama - Big!

Michael Collins
"Scoop" Independent News

(Wash. DC) Presidential election polls are frequently in conflict. Within the same time period (10/17-10/20), the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll has Obama up 10 points while the American Research Group came in six points lower, plus four for Obama. These pollsters repeat the same methodology over and over, come up with similar results, and continue to disagree. It confuses the public but provides an endless spin opportunity for advocates on both sides.

Then there are the pure analysts who create more elaborate election models. These dedicated and intensely meticulous researchers are the "spread sheet wielding" elite of polling analysis and projections. They pick and aggregate state, national, and local polls, develop mathematical models for analysis, and produce a running assessment of the presidential race available on any given day.

Looking at the leading independent polling analysts is always helpful as a counterweight to the numbing parade of random numbers filtered through the corporate media. From the very conservative Election * Projection, to the openly libertarian Votemaster, to the unwavering liberal TruthIsAll, they admit their bias yet seek accuracy.

Seeing the top three agree almost precisely just 13 days before the general election is a noteworthy event. They all predict an Obama victory by a wide margin in the Electoral College and about a 7 point win in the popular vote.

Their track records differed in 2004. The conservative Election * Projection called it for Bush. While the more accurate and thorough TruthIsAll and Votemaster knew who really won.

Here are the three on electoral votes for 2008.

Click to enlarge
There's just a 4 vote spread for both candidates in the Electoral College

The popular vote matches up conservative versus liberal.

Click to enlarge
Election * Projection and TruthIsAll have just a one point difference in their popular vote projections.

The last time there was a left - right consensus like this was the House of Representatives bill laying the foundation for internet censorship. It was opposed by both Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D, OH) and Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R, CA). When asked why just six representatives voted against the overwhelming majority in the House (three liberals, three conservatives), Rep. Kucinich responded, "because we read the bill."

These three read the data and came to the same conclusion. It's Obama by a large margin. The projections by experienced and independent analysts demonstrate a loyalty to craft and the rules of logic.

We're told that McCain is giving up in Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa. He'll make his last stand in Pennsylvania. That adds more strength to these predictive models and stands in opposition to the theatrics we may see from one or several of the networks begging for another fabricated "too close to call" election. Sorry, not this time. They'll have to sensationalize another fiction, "voter fraud."

Create your own election models in Excel.
Election Calculator - TruthIsAll

Three sites discussed
TruthIsAll: 2008 Election Model
Votemaster: The Votemaster
Election * Projection

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