UK Decides #6: Decision Time Approaches

The election is not a big deal in the Western Highlands of Scotland where I am now. This is a remote, spread out electorate represented in Westminster for the past 20 years by a Lib-Dem MP, and unlikely to change next Thursday. The electorate is represented in the Scottish Parliament by a Scottish National Party MP.

Argyll and Bute has 7 candidates in this election, including one from the Scottish Jacobite Party! Even the prospect that this time the Lib-Dems might wield some real power nationally does not seem to raise the excitement level, “Och well, mebbe”. Since the independent, contrary highlanders make a virtue of having been on the losing side for centuries they might even discard Lib-Dem now they seem to be of some significance.

There are occasional blue posters beside the road valiantly urging Vote Conservative, rather more posters exhorting Vote SNP, and the odd glimpse of green. Labour is nowhere in sight out here, but it dominates in most Scottish electorates; not only is the PM, the Chancellor and Secretary of State Scottish, Labour is expected by the Scottish media to take 44 Scottish seats including one from the conservatives. As the Guardian editorial puts it, “Far away from Westminster lies a land where Labour is coasting to victory”. Nevertheless tempers flared more openly in the TV debate between the Scottish party leaders last night than in the Leader’s emasculated version last Thursday.

Thursday’s debate added nothing in the way of substance about the economy - the ostensible topic - or about anything else. All the leaders agree on the problems and what ought to happen, but divulging hard information on future plans is not on the menu. David Cameron was increasingly confident, upbeat and willing to challenge the other two. He “won” again. The Tory policies of cutting waste, reducing state influence and releasing private enterprise will apparently lead to a glorious future for all.

The topic of the economy should have been Gordon Brown’s big moment but his gloomy message that the UK risks a double dip recession under the Conservatives, and that only he can steer safely through the dangers ahead is depressing rather than inspiring. He was undercut by being caught out the day before in describing an elderly woman Labour voter as a bigot for asking what Labour will do about Polish immigrants. Immigration is certainly a sensitive topic for voters but since 80% of immigrants come from the EU there are no simple answers.

Nick Clegg had the central spot this time, the meat in the sandwich squashed by the other two and that’s pretty much what happened. But, despite being talked over and down in the debate, he continues to attract support, perhaps convinced by his apparent reasonableness, willingness to acknowledge difficulties and put forward some detailed proposals for fair economic recovery.

Economic tanks are coming up with projections that show a huge gulf between the proposed spending cuts of the three main parties and what is necessary. One found that the Lib-Dem proposals have a smaller black hole than the other two, only 74% short rather than over 80% short! Comment in the media about the size of the deficit and fear for the UK’s longer term economic health have certainly increased in the wake of the EU’s intervention in Greece. Next will be Portugal, Ireland and then the UK according to the doomsayers, unless the right leader wins the election. But which leader is the right one?

Monday’s Herald (Glasgow) puts the Tories unchanged on 33% and Labour and Lib-Dem equal on 28%. BBC’s poll on Monday indicates that the Tories are still failing to pull away to an absolute majority. The Sunday Telegraph puts the Conservatives on 36%, Labour on 29% and Lib-Dems on 27%, and says that “The best choice for Britain is a Conservative government with a strong majority”. The Guardian and Scotsman (Edinburgh) newspapers have come out in support of the Lib-Dems. Perhaps this reflects their support for reform of the voting system as much as for liberal policies, which Nick C has said is the price for coalition.

Some comment suggests that Dave C is now expecting to run a minority government, hoping that the unionists will come on board for key legislation. One commentator is now describing him as more of a liberal pragmatist than a traditional right winger. I am watching a BBC doco, as I write, that was filmed very recently in Wellington. It shows senior British civil servants reading our cabinet manual, presumably for guidance on minority government. It includes an interview with Rodney Hide speaking for the Consumers and Taxpayers Party (I must have missed the demise of Act), who not surprisingly finds no problem with a hung Parliament.

Westminster seems to be on a different planet than the beautiful, ancient landscape I am travelling in now. In any case there is little more to say. Although the talking heads have been obsessed with the prospect of a hung parliament, really it seems too close and the options too unknown to call as yet. As we know in NZ from our First Past the Post elections, a majority vote does not necessarily translate into seats, nor does coming second in the popular vote guarantee anything.

This will be my last comment as we will all know the outcome shortly.

ENDS

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