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One of the silliest ideas in the international technology  press over the last week is 'Peak iPad'. ReadWrite expresses the idea cautiously in 'iPad may have peaked'. Or as Galen Grumen at InfoWorld puts it: "The iPad is so over, even Apple seems to be moving on". These headlines come because Apple turned in less than stella iPad sales when it reported quarterly results showing it sold 'only' 16 million tablets compared with 19 million in the same quarter a year earlier. The stories quote analyst numbers showing how Apple's share of tablet sales has fallen in comparison with Android and Windows tablets.

iPad in perspective

Some perspective is called for. The iPad is only four years old. Since it first appeared Apple has sold 210 million tablets. Selling 16 million in a quarter implies the total pool of iPads is growing at somewhere between 25 and 30 percent a year. That's hardly stagnation. True Apple's smartphone sales are growing faster than iPads. Smartphone sales in general are growing faster than tablet sales.

Tablet cycle

Remember most people buy smartphones on plans that cycle hardware every two years Those of us who buy phones off plan tend to buy new devices at roughly the same rate. We carry phones everywhere we go and use them all the time. They wear out quicker than tablets. Any novel features matter more on devices that are always with us. Tablets haven't been around long enough for people to figure out the cycle time yet, it's already clear that we hang on to them longer than our phones. My tablet is a three-year old iPad 2. Recently I borrowed a review model iPad Air from Apple. While it's lighter, faster and has a better screen, there's no compelling reason to upgrade. The newer model does a few things the old one can't, but nothing to justify an upgrade. If Apple delivers a iPad Air with a iPhone 5S style Touch ID button and other improvements later this year, I may be tempted.

Slowing iPad sales

My take on slowing iPad sales is that it reflects four loosely related trends.

• First: Early iPad sales outstripped expectation because of pent-up demand for what is essentially a digital consumption device.


• Second: Apple had the market to itself for a while. Now there is credible competition. Android and Windows tablets can satisfy the needs of people who don't like, want or can't afford to buy into Apple's world.


• Third: When the iPad first appeared smartphone screens were under four inches, today they are larger. There's a suggestion big screen smartphones are eating in to the tablet space.


• Fourth: The tablet upgrade cycle is longer than the smartphone or laptop cycle.

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