NZ First - Those Aged Over 65 Could Decide Next Government

New Zealand First Leader Winston Peters’ ability to work his narrow support base has been one of his political strengths over the years and he will be hoping recent polling will result in his MPs being essential to form the next government.

In the last Roy Morgan poll (National and NZ First Rise in Roy Morgan Poll) NZ First rose to 6.5%. If National fall below 45% then it is likely John Key will need Peters assistance to form a government. If this slips closer to 40% NZ First and others will be essential. Labour will almost certainly need NZ First unless there is a massive change in the voting landscape (See: National’s Worst Case Scenario At Stage One?).

Analysis of Roy Morgan polling data in the first seven months of 2014 shows Peters support base largely matches the stereotype portrayed – older voters, retired and provincial New Zealand.

Between January and July 2014, NZ First averaged 4.6% support in the Roy Morgan poll, but its support by age group was very lopsided.

An average of only 1.6% of those between 18 and 24 supported NZ First, only 2.2% of those between 25 and 34 and 3.5% of those aged 35 to 49. However 9.2% of those 65 and over backed NZ First with 4.3% of those between 50 and 64.

This followed through in other demographics with an average of only 3.5% of those describing themselves as employed supporting NZ First, while 8.7% of those who described themselves as retired backed the party.

Peters still retains the support of Maori with an average of 4.8% describing themselves as Maori supporting NZ First and 4.9% of those describing themselves as being of Maori descent. Support amongst non-Maori was 4.1%.

NZ First support was strongest in the provinces and weakest in Christchurch and Wellington.

Auckland 4.20%
Wellington 3.90%
Christchurch 2.90%
Other Nth Island 4.80%
Other Sth Island 4.80%

Peters knows how to appeal to his base and will be hoping the fallout from “Dirty Politics” will send some voters their way to ensure NZ First gets over 5%. Every vote after this level makes it more certain Peters will have a key say in which parties form the next government.

Another possibility is Ron Mark’s tilt at the Wairarapa seat. The former NZ First MP has a high profile in the area due to his role as a local government mayor, whether this is enough to give him a chance is an unknown at the stage. But ipredict traders do not seem to be considering the possibility with National to win Wairarapa considered a 77% probability, Labour a 21% chance and Other just 3%

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