Final Forecasts for Election 2014

National are forecast to pick up 44.8 percent of the vote on Election Day with Labour on 24.5 percent, the Greens 12.7 percent and NZ First 9.7%.

Analysis of polls by Qrious data scientists also picks the Conservatives to get 5.5 percent, ACT 0.4 United Future 0.5 and Maori Party 1 percent.

The forecasts take into account all polls up to September 19. The calculations take into account the past record of forecasting bias.

ACT 0.4 ± 0.2%

Conservative 5.5 ± 0.5%

Green 12.7 ± 0.8%

Labour 24.5 ± 1.2%

Maori Party 1.0 ± 0.3%

National 44.8 ± 1.3%

NZ First 9.7 ± 0.7%

Internet/Mana 2.5 ± 0.3%

United Future 0.5 ± 0.1%

The graph below shows the party averages over all published polls by major polling companies since 2002 factoring in historical polling bias.

These forecasts only cover the percentage of party vote support and do not take into account the effect of the minor parties picking up electorate seats and possibly bringing other MPs with them.

Included in the Centre Left Bloc are Labour, the Green Party and Internet Mana. In the Centre Right Bloc are National, Conservatives, ACT United Future and the Maori Party.

The graph also includes votes for parties which failed to win an electorate seat and failed to get past 5 percent, which would have meant if their polling preferences translated into votes those votes would have been discounted.

It is also impossible to factor in events after polls are taken and as they say in financial markets past performance is not always a guarantee of future results.

The pink dot in past elections represents actual results.

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