US Elections: NOBODY Wins Big

Tuesday, 11 November 2014, 5:07 pm
Opinion: Michael Collins

Real clear election results
(image by Michael Collins)

In the perpetual democracy pageant that takes place in Washington, DC, the representatives, including the president, are all minority representatives.

The people have spoken. Their preference is clear. By an overwhelming majority, the favorite candidate of the American public is NOBODY.

But, wait, that makes no sense. There were election contests all over the country including elections for the House of Representatives in every state. Every contest had a winner. Didn't we hear about turnout above 50% in some states? That's correct. However, the winner by far, consisted of those who simply didn't vote. They chose NOBODY.

Like unemployment, banking, and other critical data coming from the government(s), turnout isn't really turnout. If there are 2,000 voters registered and 1,000 show up to vote, government figures say there was a 50% turnout. But, if there were 3,000 eligible voters, then turnout could better be stated as 33% since only one in three eligible voters bothered to show up.

Here are the real turnout numbers:
• Only 36.6% of eligible voters (real turnout) bothered to vote.
• Six states had real turnout between 50% and 60%
• Eighteen states had turnout between 40% and 49%
• Twenty one states were between 30% and 39%
• Six states had turnout below 30%

Michael McDonald, U.S. Elections Project, George Mason University

Let's look at the turnout winners and losers, the highest and lowest in real turn out. Note that in the top six states, only one in two citizens find it is worth their time to vote.

Real Turnout - Top and Bottom of the Barrell
(image by Michael Collins)

Here's the most important point of looking at real turnout. In every single election, the winner always trailed NOBODY, the percent of eligible voters who chose not to vote.

In the perpetual democracy pageant that takes place in Washington, DC, the representatives, including the president, are all minority representatives. You simply combine NOBODY plus the tally for the representative's opponent and you get some big margins for people who refuse to endorse the sitting representative.

Here are some examples of the power of NOBODY.

NOBODY Wins Big!
(image by MIchael Collins)

How about that! The know it all from Texas, Senator Cornyn, only got the votes of only 18% of eligible voters. The vaunted Koch tool Scott Walker did better at 30% of those eligible to vote. You can be sure that these two won't talk about real turnout. Why? That measurement shows that their mandate comes from small to very small constituencies.

Why such low real turnout?
First of all, don't blame the people. They're making a rational choice given the alternatives.

There are arguments that the election system in the United States often times discourages voting. Federal elections are held on a Tuesday, which may have made sense in 1776 but makes absolutely no sense today. Why not a Sunday?

Simplified registration and voting independent of one single Tuesday might make a difference. Stupid laws requiring voter identification might make a difference. You can be 100% sure that the six lowest turnout states in the graph above have a variety of impediments to registration and voting.

Even when you have east of voting options like same day registration and vote by mail, the power of NOBODY remains strong. Four of the top six real turnout states have same day voter registration: Colorado, Iowa, Maine, and Minnesota. The average turnout for those four is just 53%.

The vote by mail states offer citizens voting by mail ballots within several days of elections. This makes things easier. However, looking at the registered voter/eligible voter turnout shows there's nothing too special here. The respective registered voter turnouts versus eligible turnout in the three vote by mail states are: Washington 49%-39%, Oregon 69%-49%, and Colorado 55%-52%.

Here's the real reason for very low to extremely low turnout by those eligible to vote in every election, year in and year out. It is simply not worth the time of non voters to vote. They make a rational choice that their vote will not make any difference, that the public is routinely ignored by those elected to Congress and the White House.

I am NOBODY!
Jesse Jackson used to exhort crowds to repeat the phrase: I am somebody! Those who didn't vote can invert that and say proudly: I am NOBODY!

Why should that generate pride?

NOBODY believes any of these stupid wars has anything to do with real national security.

NOBODY can conceive of a new Cold War and all that will cost.

NOBODY believes the cooked books on unemployment and economic growth indicating that we're in anything other than a recession-depression with double-digit unemployment.

NOBODY takes the political platitudes seriously about environmental concern.

Not voting means you refuse to endorse either candidate for office. The way the numbers work, it guarantees that no matter how well they conceal the truth, it is clear to anyone that the democracy workers in DC are all ruling in a most undemocratic function -- a majority of citizens, a large majority opposes them either by voting for other candidates or not voting.

The ruling class in this country including politicians, the tiny financial elite, and their media whores has achieved its goal. Its members can go about their business saying anything they want, no matter how idiotic, and taking any action, no matter how harmful to the people, without worrying about majority support.

There's just one direction for 2016: NOBODY for President.

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