Houthi Attack On UAE Heralds War Without End In Yemen

With their attack on the UAE on January 17 the Houthis opened another front in the seven-year war in Yemen. This latest escalation of the conflict means peace is certainly not on horizon and the innocent Yemeni people continue to be plagued by war and a humanitarian crisis. Nearly 80 percent of the country, or about 30 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance and protection and more than 13 million are in danger of starvation, according to UN estimates.

The Houthis did not expect the Southern Transitional Council (STC) to engage militarily in the Shabwa region, mainly because the Internationally Recognised Government (IRG) and its army failed to protect Shabwa from their incursion.

But the UAE-backed Giants Brigades moved quickly into Shabwa, defeated the Houthis and drove them back into North Yemen. For the vast majority of Yemen's conflict, the Giants Brigades have been active in Yemen's west, fighting in Taiz, Hodeidah and down the western coast. However in December they moved east to Shabwah following the sacking of the province's governor, Mohammed Saleh bin Adyo, who had been critical of the UAE's control of the important Balhaf seaport.

Their military defeat was seen by the Houthis as clear involvement of the UAE in the war and this prompted them to launch a series of missile and drone attacks on Abu Dhabi. The first strike, on January 17, set off fires at the airport and in a nearby industrial area, killing three people. Although two subsequent attacks were intercepted by Emirati and American missile-defence systems, the Houthis sent a clear and concise message to the UAE not to engage militarily against them. They are blaming the UAE for their defeat in Shabwa which has thwarted their ambitions to advance into South Yemen.

In response to the first attack on the Emirates, as well as ongoing drone and missile strikes on their own territory, the Saudis undertook ferocious airstrikes that, according to observers on the ground, killed and wounded scores of people in Houthi strongholds. This does not seem like a road the Emiratis want to go down. Instead, an Emirati F-16 destroyed a missile launching site the Houthis used in their second attack on Abu Dhabi. It is clear that they would rather be highlighting what is happening inside the Emirates, from Expo 2020 Dubai and a raft of new business friendly to the promise of the Abraham Accords. Yet the Emiratis are not likely to continue responding modestly to future Houthi blows, meaning the war in Yemen may be entering another new stage.

January 2022 was the most deadly month for Saudi-led coalition airstrikes on Yemen in more than five years. The Yemen Data Project reported 139 civilians were killed and 287 injured in airstrikes in January. This took the total civilian casualty toll from coalition airstrikes since 2015 to more than 19,000. An airstrike on a prison in Saada north Yemen last month killed more than 70 people and intense fighting is causing civilian casualties across the country.

Congressmember Ro Khanna, one of the most outspoken congressional critics of the war, says the U.S. has the power to stop the fighting. “We could ground the Saudi Air Force to a halt tomorrow if we stopped supplying them with tires and parts,” says Khanna. “Instead, we continue to authorize arms sales to the Saudis.”

The Houthis have overstretched themselves in various regions in Yemen and, with Iran’s backing, have been targeting Saudi Arabia. They have now demonstrated that their military capabilities are not limited to targeting the Saudis but can also reach the UAE and beyond. Within the next few weeks they will face their biggest military challenge in Marib as the Giant’s Brigade has now joined the IRG’s army in the fight for the last major city in North Yemen not under Houthi control. A day after their withdrawal from Shabwa the Houthis lost the district of Harad in Hajjah governorate in the north of the country to the IRG’s army which has also made significant gains in Taiz south west Yemen.

The Houthi attack on the UAE and their continued attacks on Saudi Arabia have attracted global outcry but the international community has done nothing to advance the resolution of the conflict. The current UN resolution on Yemen is not fit for purpose but no new resolution has been put forward.

The head of Britain’s Gulf parliamentary group David Jones said that Western powers need to unite and take a more “hard-headed approach” to Iran’s involvement in Yemen. “It is worrying that quite clearly the Houthis, with Iran’s help, have these sophisticated ballistic missiles and drones.” Jones wants a British military force to be ready to intervene in Yemen if the political and humanitarian crisis intensifies.

According to the US envoy to Yemen Tim Lenderking the Houthis should learn from recent military losses in Marib that the war is unwinnable and rejoin the peace process. The United States threatened the Houthis with new sanctions. "We've taken a number of such actions, including in recent weeks and months alone, and I suspect we will be in a position to take additional action given the reprehensible attacks that we've seen emanate from Yemen from the Houthis in recent days and weeks," said State Department Spokesperson Ned Price. President Joe Biden's administration is under increasing pressure to again formally designate the Houthis as a "foreign terrorist organization," a label withdrawn from the group one year ago after Biden became president.

International aid an human rights organisations remain united in their opposition to a re-designation which they say would further devastate the economy by hitting the private sector, specifically importers and businesses that provide a majority of Yemen’s basic commodities like food, fuel, and medicine. The country is experiencing alarming levels of food insecurity right now, with the worst-affected Yemenis at risk of famine.

Human rights abuses in the country are continuing: the Houthis are forcing young children to fight in the war, women’s rights are almost non existent, journalists are imprisoned and four have been sentenced to death and all forms of intellectual debate are suppressed. Sanaa’s famous Abu Dharr al-Ghifari book shop, a gathering place for the exchange of ideas has been closed. To prevent further serious rights violations and abuses and halt a descent into a humanitarian catastrophe, the international community must reinstate the mandate of the Group of Eminent International and Regional Experts (GEE) on Yemen – which effectively ceased operations last year – or set up a similar international oversight mechanism.

The UAE decided to withdraw their forces from Yemen in 2018 but it has remained an influential player in Yemen through its backing of the STC. With the STC’s assistance it has assisted Israel, which whom it is normalising relations, to set up bases in Socotra. The attacks by the Houthis will no doubt influence the UAE to reengage in the war in a much more effective way - possibly militarily.

The Houthis will continue their attacks against the UAE which has the military backing of the USA. On February 1, the US said it would deploy a guided missile destroyer and state-of-the-art fighter jets to help the UAE defend itself against Houthi attacks. France has decided to reinforce Emirates’ defences, including Rafale jets, to counter any future aggression. The international community is very concerned about the global markets and the UAE is critical to the world global economy. The Houthis have made a big mistake by attacking the emirates, which may see a powerful international response against them.

The UAE is OPEC’s third-largest oil produced and one of the world’s biggest trade and tourism hubs. The Houthis are now threatening a major ally of the West in the Gulf and this makes them a significant economic and political threat to the international community. With the continued backing of the West of the Arab coalition and Iran’s support for the Houthis the war will continue on several fronts pushing Yemen further and further towards the abyss.

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