Trump's Victory, Authoritarians & Trade Warriors

BANGKOK, Thailand -- President-elect Trump's blistering portrayal of illegal immigrants eating cats and dogs, plus his tough threats of steep tariffs against China, are expected to intimidate Asians hoping to move to the U.S. or profit from Chinese-U.S. trade.

Mr. Trump's victory however may bring some relief for the leaders of three authoritarian, pro-China, Southeast Asian nations -- Myanmar, Laos, and Cambodia.

"In his first term, he [Trump] did not exhibit interest in the promotion of democracy or human rights," Kantathi Suphamongkhon, a Thai former foreign minister, said in an interview. "This tendency is expected to continue.

"Governments in Southeast Asia with human rights or democracy issues will feel less or no pressure on this front," Mr. Kantathi said.

Those leaders could expect a much less confrontational Washington responding to their countries' lack of fair elections, free speech, and other human rights which are often highlighted by Democratic administrations.

Asian leaders are also presumably adjusting their diplomatic behavior and style to respond to Mr. Trump's often erratic statements and get past the bluster.

"Under his strongman leadership, a personal relationship with him has heightened value," Mr. Kantathi said.

"Leaders with skills in complimenting Trump will benefit. Charm offensive skills will have enhanced value.

"Government leaders who show preference for a transactional approach, and determination to work towards a trade balance with the U.S., will be seen in a positive light," Mr. Kantathi said.

Mr. Trump's return to power could spark a Washington-Beijing trade war which may benefit Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and others, analysts say.

Ambitious, low-wage Southeast Asian nations are hoping to replace tariffed Chinese manufactured exports to the U.S., especially goods involving automobiles and electronics, if Mr. Trump negotiates hard against China.

During Mr. Trump's first term as president, frosty trade relations between Washington and Beijing resulted in the relocation of companies' offices and businesses from China to Southeast Asia, to avoid financial barriers including tariffs and quotas on "made-in-China" goods and services.

"Cambodia could be a major winner if the U.S. President-elect Donald Trump goes through with his threat to drastically hike tariffs on Chinese goods," Phnom Penh-based Khmer Times online reported on Monday (Nov. 11).

"U.S. companies are already planning to shift production to the kingdom [Cambodia] from China as they look for alternative sources of goods."

Cambodia Chamber of Commerce Vice-President Lim Heng told Khmer Times: "We know all about the [trade] war threat between China and America.

"This threat will push Chinese companies to invest more in Cambodia," Mr. Lim Heng said.

"Chinese companies and regional companies will come here and invest in Cambodia and export to the U.S., Europe and other places."

Cambodian exports of clothing, electrical goods, raw materials, and travel accessories could benefit from high U.S. tariffs against China.

But many Asian countries would dread having a push-comes-to-shove choice of exclusively backing the U.S. or China if those two giants battle.

"The Thai government must also be careful to not be perceived as having an unfairly close alliance with China, or be a hub for Chinese investors, in a way that could undermine the image of Thai exports," a Bangkok Post editorial warned on Nov. 8.

"We want to be loved by China. We want to be loved by America," said Thailand's Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan in September.

Some in Asia, however, perceive an increasingly desperate America grappling with wars and hostilities scattered across the world, and in need of friends and allies.

Southeast Asia "now has more bargaining power than before, and sees that the United States will interfere in the conflict in the South China Sea. Therefore, America's position is not as strong as before," Wanwichit Boonprong, a political science lecturer at Rangsit University, said in an interview.

China appears to be gaining influence.

"He [Trump] should know that in recent years, Chinese capital has had a huge influence in [Southeast Asian] countries, both legally and illegally, and many countries are happy to accept it because of their geopolitical location that is very close to China, coupled with the fact that many countries have Chinese descent, and in terms of culture or tradition it is easy to accept being Chinese," Mr. Wanwichit said.

For example, China was the enemy of U.S.-backed Jakarta during Indonesia's anti-communist purges and extrajudicial killings across the archipelago in the 20th century.

Today, Beijing is implementing a $2 billion loan from the government's China Development Bank (CDB) to construct a Jakarta-Bandung High Speed Rail (HSR) Project linking the two Indonesian cities.

"He [Trump] should understand that because of the rise of China in the [Southeast Asian] region, and what appears to be Washington’s diminished interest there, several Asian countries have increasingly hedged or sought to create balance between China and the U.S. This includes Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia," Paul Chambers, a Southeast Asian security affairs specialist at Naresuan University, said in an interview.

Asian countries which perceive China as unfriendly may be welcoming Mr. Trump's embrace and return to the presidency.

"Given Trump’s demonstrated anti-China policy in his first term, his return to office in 2024 points to more economic and security benefits for countries feeling bullied by China in Asia -- namely Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Laos, Japan, and South Korea," Mr. Chambers said.

"Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia are the frontline states in the eyes of the United States as a result of China's aggressive behavior in the South China Sea," Kasit Piromya, another Thai former foreign minister, said in an interview.

Some fear a U.S.-tariffed China may be too slow to halt its factories overproducing relatively cheap items.

If so, the resulting unsold Chinese goods could be pushed south and dumped in Thailand, financially challenging Thai-owned businesses and industries which are already competing with China's exported inexpensive goods.

Washington and Bangkok meanwhile enjoy close diplomatic, economic, and especially military relations which are expected to continue under Mr. Trump.

"If Trump offers positive inducements to the Thai military, relations will improve," Mr. Chambers said.

"Regardless of who becomes the next U.S. president, our mutual goals and cooperation remain steadfast," Thai Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa said on Nov. 6.

"Our relationship with the U.S. is robust, consistent, and longstanding."

Thailand, a non-NATO U.S. treaty ally, tries to balance its relations with the U.S. and China, citing unique advantages each superpower offers.

Mr. Trump's return to the White House coincides with the Pentagon's hopes to sell Lockheed Martin's F-16 warplanes to Thailand, against strong competition from Sweden's Saab-made Gripen E/F fighter aircraft.

Boeing is building eight AH-6 "Little Bird" combat attack helicopters for the Royal Thai Army and will train Thai pilots at the U.S. Army Yuma Proving Ground at Mesa, Arizona.

In July, a couple of Beechcraft/Textron AT-6TH Wolverine light attack aircraft were delivered from its Providence, Rhode Island-based manufacturer to Thailand's air force.

Possible options include arming the Wolverines with laser-guided bombs, AGM-114 Hellfire air-to-surface missiles, and other weapons.

One year ago, the U.S. donated a dozen patrol boats to the Thai Marine Police.

"The U.S. is ready to work closely with Thailand in many areas, including modernizing the military, combating drugs, and strengthening economic ties," U.S. Ambassador to Thailand Robert Godec said on Oct. 9 while meeting Chusak Sirinil, a minister in the prime minister's office.

Mr. Chusak said, “Thailand remains a steadfast ally of the United States."

If Mr. Trump takes a hard line against Beijing and its friends, countries such as Cambodia could come under pressure for their close financial relations with heavily invested Chinese who have profited from the country's real estate, natural resources, tourism, and other goods and services.

Relations between the U.S. and Cambodia are already strained by Washington's criticism of Phnom Penh's domestic political issues and lack of human rights, which Cambodia regards as U.S. interference.

The U.S. also suspects Cambodia is allowing China to help expand Ream Naval Base, on Cambodia's southern coast along the Gulf of Thailand, into a strategic Chinese military base, which Phnom Penh denies.

Cambodia is meanwhile being challenged by Thailand for competing territorial claims in the shallow, resource-rich Gulf of Thailand near U.S. and Thai oil and natural gas platforms.

Apparently hoping to improve relations with Mr. Trump, Cambodian Senate President and former Prime Minister Hun Sen optimistically posted on his Facebook account:

"Before the election, Donald Trump sent a message to the American people and around the world about loving peace, war-hating, [and] so-called pacifism.

"Trump's victory shows that Americans love peace rather than having an outright war in Ukraine and Israel," Mr. Hun Sen wrote.

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Richard S. Ehrlich is a Bangkok-based American foreign correspondent reporting from Asia since 1978. Excerpts from his two new nonfiction books, "Rituals. Killers. Wars. & Sex. -- Tibet, India, Nepal, Laos, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka & New York" and "Apocalyptic Tribes, Smugglers & Freaks" are available at https://asia-correspondent.tumblr.com

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