Dunne's Weekly: Some Observations On A Turbulent Political Year

As a turbulent political year draws to a close some observations can be made about the state of the various parties and some of their personnel.

Within the National Party, this year has seen the emergence of Chris Bishop as not just one of the government’s key Ministers, with a range of new initiatives across his various portfolios, but also the go-to person when things do not go to plan. In that regard, he looks set to reprise the role of Minister of Everything, pioneered by Sir Bill Birch during the Bolger government, and developed to the ultimate degree by Steven Joyce in the last National-led government.

Erica Stanford has been National’s best performing Minister during the year. She has always managed to appear competent and professional, and on top of her brief. At the same time, she has shown, with her handling of the Abuse in Care inquiry outcomes, that she has the appropriate levels of compassion when required to balance her cool competence. Judith Collins continues to be National’s quiet achiever across a varied range of portfolios, and never putting a foot wrong.

On the other hand, Shane Reti has been the biggest disappointment. He has failed to achieve any of the government’s commitments on improving the public health system, despite retaining the soothing and reassuring bedside manner expected of a doctor. He must surely be a leading candidate for demotion when the first Cabinet reshuffle occurs next year.

Chris Hipkins has been Labour’s most consistent and persistent performer throughout the year. His contributions have generally been sensible and thoughtful, although constrained by the policy time-warp his party seems to be entering. Against the odds, it is becoming more likely that he could lead Labour into the next election, although whether he can achieve victory remains another question altogether.

However, Hipkins has been handicapped throughout the year by the largely somnambulant performance of the rest of his colleagues, many of whom have been dormant since before the last election. Others would best serve Labour’s interests by staying asleep, altogether. (Wille Jackson’s consistently buffoonish rants, and Aysha Verrall’s supercilious smugness come to mind.)

During 2025, Labour will need to start to cull many of the time servers and deadwood wasting space on its backbenches to get in shape to be competitive at the 2026 election.

As ACT leader, David Seymour has enjoyed a good year. While other ACT Ministers – notably Karen Chhour – have impressed, Seymour’s persona, built around his unflinching commitment to the controversial Treaty Principles Bill has largely shaped the party’s image, although not led to any significant increase in potential voter support. His challenge will be to maintain the momentum he has generated, once the Treaty Principles Bill bites the dust next year, and his elevation to the position of Deputy Prime Minister around the same time should assist in that regard.

Winston Peters’ durability and political stamina has been remarkable, and his wiliness has been an asset for the government during its first year. Next May, he will step down from his third stint as Deputy Prime Minister, shortly after his 80th birthday. He says this will leave him plenty of time to campaign for New Zealand First’s re-election in 2026.

However, Shane Jones’ impatience to succeed Peters as party leader is beginning to show and may get in the way of any wish Peters has to lead New Zealand First into the next election. Jones is also no spring chicken and has made no secret of his interest in New Zealand First’s top job, whenever it should become vacant.

As far as the Green Party is concerned, this has been the year of Chloe Swarbrick. Through the most tragic and unexpected circumstances she has led the party through its most difficult year. Her drive and determination have sustained her thus far but maintaining that level of intensity over the next two years will be challenging. At the same time, she may need to curb her mounting tendency to appear to be talking down to people and hectoring them on policies the Greens feel passionately about.

Te Pati Māori has succeeded at becoming Parliament’s self-styled disruptor by making itself unpopular with everyone but its core constituency, which appears to be growing. This potentially creates a longer-term problem for Labour if it sees Te Pati Māori as a possible future partner in government. Labour could well consider it is becoming too hot to handle as a government partner, in much the same way as Helen Clark dismissed an earlier incarnation of the party as “the last cab off the rank” in 2005. On the other hand, Labour may have no path to government, other than with Te Pati Māori, although that may put at risk some of Labour’s more conservative support.

Finally, Parliament's best performer – as opposed to politician of the year – has been Speaker Gerry Brownlee who has performed his role with the patience, wisdom and dignity that critics might not previously expected of him.

That ends the observations this year. It is now time to wish everyone a happy Christmas and a rewarding 2025 ahead.

© Scoop Media