[Sitting date: 25 November 2014. Volume:702;Page:9. Text is subject to correction.]

8. GRANT ROBERTSON (Labour—Wellington Central) to the Minister of Finance : Does he stand by his statement with regard to the 2014/15 surplus target that “we will achieve one”?

Hon BILL ENGLISH (Minister of Finance): Yes , but we will not know for sure until the Government’s annual accounts are published late next year for the actual outcome for the 2014-15 year. As I said publicly last week, I believe that the strength of the economy and constrained Government spending can deliver a surplus when those accounts are published. I would note that that member, Grant Robertson, in his many spokesman roles over the last 6 years, has opposed every measure the Government has taken to controlled spending.

Grant Robertson : Who is correct: him, who continues to claim a surplus will be achieved, or the Prime Minister, who now acknowledges that the surplus has disappeared?

Hon BILL ENGLISH : The member will have to get a bit more familiar with the facts if he is going to be the finance spokesman. The numbers, of course, will be discussed at the half-year update. As we have indicated, weakness in international dairy prices is likely to flow through to Government revenue in the shorter term. We have confidence we can achieve surplus for the 2014-15 year, but we will not know that for sure until about October next year.

Grant Robertson : In light of that answer, does he agree with his own statement that lower commodity prices mean the economy will not grow as fast as expected, or does he agree with the Prime Minister that dairy prices will rebound and “fundamentally the pathway’s going to be back the other way ”?

Hon BILL ENGLISH : We certainly have confidence in the future track for dairy prices in New Zealand. I know that the Opposition parties believe that dairy has done too well. Well, let us try what it is like when the prices are down. Actually, it would be good if the dairy industry was successful—good for the New Zealand economy.

Grant Robertson : When the Prime Minister said there were other options to achieving surplus in the face of a $5 billion hit from lower commodity prices, did he mean cutting spending; if so, what programmes will be cut to ensure he makes his meagre surplus?

Hon BILL ENGLISH : The economy has a broad base of growth at the moment. The other options for achieving surplus are simply that the strength of the rest of the economy—whether it is through high commodity prices for quite a range of New Zealand products, a burgeoning IT sector, or a big inflow of New Zealanders coming back from Australia—all of these things will help to offset the impact of lower dairy prices on the Government’s books. Actually, the growth outlook for New Zealand is probably improving slightly as we head into a more sustainable economic cycle than we have had for some time.

Rt Hon John Key : Has the Minister of Finance seen any reports that it is an unusual thing to get control of the numbers and to have to understand and digest the numbers, when you are a person who has twice failed to get the numbers?

Mr SPEAKER : That question is certainly out of order, but I will take a supplementary question from Grant Robert son.

Grant Robertson : Supplementary question. Here is a number. I have a number for you, Bill—22. That is the number for you, Bill .

Mr SPEAKER : Order! I will now look forward to the supplementary question.

Grant Robertson : In light of his promise, first made in 2011, of a “meaningful surplus for 2014-15”, what dollar figure will constitute a meaningful surplus?

Hon BILL ENGLISH : You will have to wait for the out-turn. But what we do know is that in the Labour caucus one MP who promised Grant Robertson a vote did not deliver it, and that changed the leadership of the Labour Party. So a small number can make a big difference.

Mr SPEAKER : Order!

Grant Robertson : I raise a point of order, Mr Speaker. Out of that highly irrelevant answer, can I get another supplementary question?

Mr SPEAKER : The member may. The latter part was not helpful for the order of the House, I accept, but the member—[Interruption] I am on my feet, if the member had not noticed. He has raised a point of order and said the answer was irrelevant. I think the answer did address the question. He simply said he is not prepared to put a dollar figure on it until the December Economic and Fiscal Update is released later.

ENDS

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