Futures Thinking Aotearoa
3 October 2006 Forum

Tuesday, 3 October from 12.15 - 1.30pm
Museum Room, Turnbull House, Bowen St, Wellington

Is New Zealand's Balance of Payments and International Debt a Ticking Time Bomb? What will be the impact of an oil price rise?
Panel: Petrus Simons
John Robinson

Since the neo-liberal reforms of the 1980s, deficits in the current account of the balance of payments have been ignored by policy-makers since they believed that they would be financed by private sector interests for productive purposes. The most recent deficit was 9.3% of GDP and net international liabilities stood at 85.3% of GDP.

If oil runs out, as it inevitably will, what would be the consequences for the New Zealand economy i.e. farmers/fishers, manufacturers, consumers, Government?
When should we start preparing for this and what would be the shape of future economic activity that should guide us?

Petrus Simons was born in the Netherlands, where he worked for 11 years in a shipping, trading and industrial business specialized in building materials. He migrated to New Zealand in 1967 where he studied economics and worked as an economist for the New Zealand Employers Federation (1972-1978), the Bank of New Zealand (1980-1988) and as a partner in consulting firm Integrated Economic Services (1988-2003).

John Robinson is a self-employed consultant living in Island Bay. He studied mathematics and physics at Auckland University and fluid mechanics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology before lecturing on these topics. When he was a scientist with the Department of Scientific and Industrial Research his study of the 1972 report to the Club of Rome, "The limits to growth", took him into the interdisciplinary arena of futures research, and he has considered many aspects of the global scene. These include following forecasts of energy availability and the implications for global finance of the considerable flows of capital involved, and the damaging restructuring of New Zealand science. That work has included studies in many social sciences for a number of United Nations agencies.

Cost: New Zealand Futures Trust members: $ 5
Non- NZFT members: $15

e-mail:info[at]futurestrust.org.nz, Phone: Yvonne Curtis 04 383 5080,
mail: NZFT, Box 12 008, Wellington 6144

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Is New Zealand's Balance of Payments and International Debt a Ticking Time Bomb? What will be the impact of an oil price rise?

Tuesday, 3 October from 12.15 - 1.30pm
Museum Room, Turnbull House, Bowen St, Wellington

$ 5 (NZFT members) $15 (non NZFT member)

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Phone: Yvonne 383 5080, email: info[at]futurestrust.org.nz

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