Marc My Words… 1 June 2007

Political comment By Marc Alexander

Is that an election or are you just pleased to see me?

The countdown to the next general election has begun. Labour’s increasingly tenuous hold of the treasury benches has hit a slew of issues from which it is unlikely to recover. Some are simply the result of weariness after eight years at the helm of the nation to be sure, but the recent spate of problems has been none other than of their own making. Misjudgements, bad management and reversals of policy have been given added momentum with a laundry list of either foolish arrogance or outright corruption.

The Philip Field saga drones on under the weight of dozens of charges that, despite his resignation (or expulsion depending upon your point of view), still casts its pall over the government. Add that to the splintering support parties who now struggle to gain relevance amid the mood swings of public opinion, each in turn vying for a slice of their diminishing electoral pie and the recipe for an earlier rather than later election must come into increasing probability.

Now, the last date on which we could have an election is Saturday 15th November 2008. It’s unlikely however that Helen Clark, should she remain leader, would choose to wait that long. For a start that would almost certainly coincide with the Phillip Field trial which will inevitably cast a negative slur on Labour. Besides, whatever positive budgetary goodies, like bubblegum, will have by then lost much of their flavour.

Additionally, National under John Key will have by then built a formidable and enticing alternative range of policies underpinned by both his growing stature as a Prime minister in waiting, and the lack of political baggage with which to dent his credibility.

Helen Clark is nothing if not a clever and wily tactician. She can be expected to use her office and the power of incumbency to lethal effect. Given that she will not particularly relish standing on her record (as deplorable as it is), she will ‘time’the elections to advantage her as best she can. Amongst her calculations must be the combined polling of Labour and the Greens.

With her party’s support ebbing quickly, she will want to capitalise on acquiring a portion of the Labour protest vote going to the Greens. We may see some very Greens friendly policy being trotted out as a result. Should the aggregate polling bounce up within striking distance of a majority, Clark will augment a mammoth vote-buying set of policies, go on the hustings and attempt a record fourth term.

The current speculation regarding the provision of Winston Peters with a safe Labour seat is just that: speculation. It is unlikely to be a useful strategy for two fundamental reasons. Firstly, as in the case of both Peter Dunne and Jim Anderton, to gift a seat is to lose a seat. In either case they will become winnable only after they are vacated through retirement or an expensive longer term campaign than the usual three years. Electorates aren’t stupid and the pulling power of a party leader in terms of resources gives them a valuable local edge.

Secondly, Winston isn’t stupid either. He knows he’s toast and the last thing he would want is to be any more beholden to Helen Clark than he already is. Being teased about being a lap-dog has clearly hurt his pride. If he can’t win on his own, he’s likely to demand an overseas posting to suit his palette; that is, if he hasn’t already.

The rest of this year is out not only because it smacks of desperation but also because it coincides with local body elections. Given that the tide is running out on Labour, Clark will not want to tempt fate by losing her party’s’ influence at community level as well. It’s perhaps worth noting that many centre-left council candidates are taking great efforts to distance themselves from party affiliation.

This is not just a newly convenient conversion to independence but motivated by self-preservation in jobs they have no desire to relinquish. It’s simple really: the downtrodden workers they are financially advantaged to espouse on behalf of are not the company of people they actually wish to be a part.

So that brings us to the first half of next year. I suspect that there will be a number of synergistic strategies run together. The first is to win the hearts of the media again. For the same reason that having the town gossip on side to sway the village, watch out for extra seating on overseas trips and in depth interview opportunities to be given to notable media personalities. The next thing is to actually have something worthwhile to say.

I suspect Clark will have a bevy of focus groups trying to dream up policies and initiatives with which to woo the public. No portion of the civic landscape will be left un-examined for potential bribery. Like a used-car salesman, the opening line will be “what can we do for you?” The fact that this strategy will be nothing less than taking money from one source only to give it back to another in the most inefficient manner will be lost to those enticed by the pearly whites of the artfully faked smiles of the courting Labour MP’s.

Naturally money is required for all this. Bucketfuls of our money in fact. So expect another attempt at taxpayer funding and/or misuse of public money a la 2005. It will be more deftly handled to be sure, but it will be done. Add to the mix a campaign of personal attacks on National MP’s, scare-mongering, and outright lies about the consequences of National party policies, and you have all the elements of the next Labour strategy to attempt an election win in 2008.

There is however one additional clue as to when. I’m convinced that Helen Clark will use the Christmas break to advance her electoral gimmicks secretly with her top cadre of plotters. The budget will play its part and, I would imagine, would be used to parlay tax cuts and business friendly initiatives in an attempt to undercut whatever they think National will do. Cullen will be dragged kicking and screaming but he will have no choice because Herr Clark will force the issue. Still, no-one should be duped by such an obvious gambit. Such ideas as genuine economic fairness don’t come easily to a cold socialist heart. The plan will be hopelessly flawed of course, and I’ll bet John Key and Bill English will delight in the opportunity to expose them.

The point though, is that Clark will call an election within the shadow of the 2008 Budget, basking in the neon after-glow of tax-cuts, the manipulation of media, and an armful of organic promises slipped into the Greens hemp-hewn future coalition agreement details. So I’m picking the middle of June for an election (albeit not usually a good time for Labour supporters to catch the bus to the nearest polling booth – but worse for the Greens on their skateboards and recycled pink bicycles methinks). The good news for the rest of us is that it won’t work. The public have had enough and are eagerly anticipating an early spring – and a new government

ENDS

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